In the 2021 presidential race, National Unity Platform (NUP) flagbearer Robert Kyagulanyi, also known as Bobi Wine, narrowly defeated President Museveni in the sub-region with 437,059 votes to 404,962, marking the first time Museveni had lost Busoga since taking power in 1986.
While the ruling party retained a majority of parliamentary and local council seats in 2021, Museveni’s poor performance sounded an alarm within the NRM.
Out of 12 districts and Jinja City, the President won only in more impoverished districts of Buyende, Kaliro and Namutumba, pointing to deepening frustration among voters.
Former Jinja East MP Paul Mwiru said the conditions that influenced the 2021 outcome remain largely unchanged.
He pointed to continuing hardships in fishing communities, instability in the sugarcane sector, poor service delivery and corruption as enduring sources of public discontent.
The Uganda People’s Defence Forces crackdown on illegal fishing on Lakes Victoria and Kyoga remains controversial.
While the operation was designed to protect dwindling fish stocks, many residents feel the enforcement has been excessively harsh and has stripped households of their main source of income.
Jinja South West MP Timothy Batuwa said fishermen are being treated like criminals without being offered alternative livelihoods, warning that the resentment could cost the government support in key lakeside districts.
Government plans to phase out rice growing in wetlands, a common practice in Mayuge, Luuka, Bugweri, Kamuli and Bugiri, have also unsettled residents.
Political analyst Fredrick Basoga Ngobi said many families view the change as a direct threat to their survival in a region already grappling with high poverty levels.
Despite government initiatives such as Emyooga and the Parish Development Model, poverty rates remain stubbornly high.
Lawyer Samuel Akalyamawa noted that although the programs are well-intentioned, corruption and poor implementation have eroded their impact and reduced them to political slogans rather than meaningful interventions.
Infrastructure remains another sore point. Long-promised roads including the Jinja–Mbulamuti–Bukungu route and the Walugogo–Luuka–Budhumbula road remain incomplete.
Residents say the unfulfilled pledges symbolize a wider pattern of government neglect that is likely to influence voting behaviour.
The sugarcane industry crisis, which weakened NRM support in 2021, is now at the centre of renewed optimism following President Museveni’s approval of the Sugar Act.
The law strengthens the role of the Sugar Council and gives farmers a stronger say in industry regulation. Sugarcane farmer Hamis Mukama Ndote said the new law has restored confidence among growers who hope long-standing challenges will finally be addressed.
Sugar Council member Isa Budhugo added that mobilization for Museveni has already resumed in farming communities.
However, internal tensions within the NRM continue to cast a shadow over the party’s prospects. After Speaker Rebecca Kadaga lost the race for 2nd Deputy National Vice Chairperson (Female) in the Central Executive Committee, sections of her support base felt sidelined.
Although she has since led successful Vote Museveni mobilisation rallies, analysts caution that the internal fallout left emotional and political scars that may resurface during voting.
With economic survival, political identity and service delivery concerns still unresolved, Busoga remains a crucial swing region ahead of 2026.
Whether the NRM can restore its influence will depend on how it addresses livelihoods, fulfills infrastructure commitments and manages internal unity.
As campaigns intensify, Busoga stands not only as a former ruling-party stronghold but as a barometer of the national political mood heading into the polls.