Uganda’s real estate market is showing renewed vibrancy, with investors accelerating construction of modern and expanded commercial office spaces.
Industry players predict that the second half of 2025 will register even stronger activity—despite lingering uncertainty linked to the 2026 general elections.
As the NBS Housing Baraza 7th Edition kicks off on 27th November, insights from Knight Frank’s H1 Kampala Market Performance Review, coupled with wider national housing data, reveal a sector in transition and a market on the verge of structural change.
Uganda’s economy grew by 6.3% in FY 2024/25, driven by improved trade flows and strong performance in the services sector.
This economic momentum has cascaded into real estate, supporting a surge in new construction and shifting tenant patterns.
Between January and June 2025, developers recorded an increase in tenants seeking flexible or short-term lease arrangements—a trend tied to changing consumer preferences, mobility, and tighter budgets.
Analysts believe these shifts will shape how new buildings are designed and positioned in the coming months.
The industrial real estate segment continues to stand out as the sector’s most resilient performer, with occupancy levels consistently above 80% and warehouse rents stable at USD 3–7 per square meter per month.
Demand for storage, logistics, and light manufacturing space remains robust. Despite these positive indicators, Uganda faces a severe challenge: a national housing deficit estimated at 2.4 million units—210,000 in urban centres and 1.395 million in rural areas.
Even with approximately 60,000 housing units constructed each year, the country still falls short by 200,000–300,000 units annually as rapid population growth and urbanisation outpace supply.
Experts warn that the country may be approaching a critical tipping point that requires urgent and innovative solutions.
Knight Frank’s half-year review shows a sector experiencing mixed performance. In the prime residential market, occupancy dipped by 1% to 80% while average rents for two-bedroom units declined by 7%.
The tenant mix also shifted, with reduced demand from Western expatriates balanced by increased interest from Asian professionals.
In the commercial office segment, occupancy rates fell by 5% for Grade A and 2% for Grade AB spaces as new developments outpaced tenant uptake. Meanwhile, the retail segment posted a strong rebound, with shopper footfall rising by 13%, grocery turnover increasing by 8% year-on-year, and occupancy across Knight Frank–managed malls improving by 2%.
This year’s NBS Housing Baraza, an annual national symposium of housing experts, will focus heavily on affordable housing, financing gaps, policy interventions, and innovations aimed at addressing the mounting housing deficit.
The Baraza, now in its seventh edition, officially opens on Thursday, November 27.
Speaking ahead of the event, Wilberforce Nsamba, a realtor and real estate specialist, stressed the urgency of this year’s discussions. “Uganda’s housing gap is no longer a distant policy issue—it is an economic and social emergency,” Nsamba said.
“The Baraza’s seventh edition comes at a crucial time. We expect concrete commitments on lowering construction costs, unlocking long-term financing, and enabling developers to produce affordable homes at scale. The outcomes of this year’s Baraza will influence housing policy and investment directions for years to come.”
Nsamba added that while commercial real estate is repositioning itself, the sector’s sustainable future depends on solving the affordability question. “If we can align policy, private-sector innovation, and community needs, Uganda can turn this housing crisis into a major economic opportunity,” he noted.
The combination of structural shortages, rising demand, evolving tenant preferences, and macroeconomic pressures underscores a sector in motion.
As Uganda navigates 2025 and prepares for the uncertainties of an election year, the real estate market appears poised for transformation—one that could redefine investment trends and housing realities across the country.
With the NBS Housing Baraza now underway, stakeholders will be watching closely for the actionable solutions and commitments needed to close Uganda’s widening housing gap.