The latest Food Security Monitor from AGRA reveals a mixed picture for Uganda, with seasonal price declines in key staples offering short-term relief even as macroeconomic pressures, particularly fuel costs, threaten longer-term food security gains.
The May 2026 report shows that Uganda's maize prices declined by 11.3% from April to May, while bean prices fell by 6.9%. These reductions reflect expected seasonal patterns as farmers begin the first-season harvests. Rice prices remained relatively stable with modest gains. However, these improvements mask deeper structural vulnerabilities.
"We expect the prices will eventually rise as fuel costs feed into transport expenses," said David Wozemba Wetaka, AGRA Uganda Country Director. "Households need to consider investing in food storage to cushion themselves against future price increases."
"A household storing 200 kg of maize can feed a family of six for four months or sell when prices rise by 20–30% in three months," Wetaka advised. "That's food security plus cash income, all from the current harvest."
According to the AGRA data, between 1 and 2.5 million Ugandans currently face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) conditions or worse, with needs concentrated among poor households in Karamoja and refugee populations.
While the lean season, which peaks in May, is expected to ease somewhat with June harvests, the underlying drivers of vulnerability remain unresolved.
The report emphasizes the critical role of fertilizer availability in sustaining productivity.
AGRA has highlighted Uganda's new partnership with the Green Hydrogen Fertilizer Company (GHFC), which aims to boost adoption through farmer training and extension services while maintaining import flows of approximately 50,000 metric tonnes.
"Fertilizer access is the foundation for improved productivity in agriculture," Wozemba explained. "Without it, even favorable rainfall cannot translate into adequate harvests. The GHFC partnership symbolizes a commitment to strengthen this critical input supply chain."
The initiative places Uganda among the few East African countries pursuing large-scale domestic fertilizer production capacity expansion, positioning it to reduce long-term import dependency.
While current food prices remain generally below average, the report cautions that this advantage is temporary. Rising fuel costs and increased transport expenses are expected to create upward pressure in the months ahead, potentially eroding purchasing power for poor, market-dependent households.
In Karamoja specifically, below-average expected harvests combined with late planting suggest that vulnerability will persist into the next season, despite some improvements in livestock conditions and pasture availability.
AGRA's assessment suggests that Uganda's food security will depend significantly on policy decisions over the next quarter. Fuel price management, continued fertilizer supply chain support, and targeted assistance to vulnerable populations will be critical in preventing the seasonal reprieve from deteriorating into renewed crisis.
