Story by BBC
Satellite imagery and verified videos show Ukraine has repeatedly struck key Russian oil export infrastructure near the Baltic Sea in the past week, leaving some facilities burning for several days.
BBC Verify has confirmed at least three oil sites in Russia's Leningrad region have been attacked since 23 March, including the ports of and Ust-Luga and Primorsk - and the inland Kirishi oil refinery.
On Tuesday, Ukraine drone forces commander Robert Brovdi said Ust-Luga had been struck again on Monday night "to keep the fire going".
Governor of Leningrad region Alexander Drozdenko said three people, including two children, were injured during the attack in which 38 drones were shot down.
According to analysis by the Finland-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (Crea) 20% of Russia's total oil exports departed from Ust-Luga and 22% from Primorsk.
A satellite image of the smoke plume at Ust-Luga captured by intelligence firm Vantor on 27 March
Recent data shows no ships were loaded with oil in any of Russia's three Baltic ports on 26 and 27 March, which Crea said is the first period of two consecutive days with no such activity since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Satellite images show enormous plumes of smoke rising from burning oil facilities in Primorsk on 24 March, as well as fires at Ust-Luga and extensive damage to Kirishi on 27 March.
BBC Verify's analysis of the pictures indicates:
- Primorsk - at least eight storage tanks destroyed or damaged
- Ust-Luga - at least eight tanks destroyed or damaged
- Kirishi - at least two storage tanks damaged
A verified video of a smoke plume rising from the Primorsk port was shared online on 23 March
Nasa's satellite resource FIRMS, used to detect heat signatures on the Earth's surface, indicates Primorsk was still burning as of 02:54 BST on Monday and at Ust-Luga at 12:28 on Monday.
BBC Verify has also confirmed several videos showing the aftermath of attacks on all three facilities in the past week, including clips showing massive smoke plumes rising into the sky from Primorsk.
Brovdi had previously said an operation targeting these three Baltic oil facilities began on 23 March, saying the strikes were aimed at "demilitarising Russia's oil arteries, refining capacity and crude export infrastructure".
Ukraine's military has said the Kirishi refinery is among the three largest oil‑processing plants in Russia, including the production of "fuels that support the armed forces of the aggressor state".
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At least 40% of Russia's oil export capacity was halted on 25 March following the first attacks, according to calculations by the Reuters news agency based on market data.
According to Crea's analysis, Russia earned about £7.1bn from oil exports in the final three weeks of March, as prices rose sharply due to disruption caused by the US-Israel war with Iran.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Monday that allies have asked Kyiv to reduce attacks on Russia's energy sector because of the global energy crisis. He added they would only end if Russia stopped targeting Ukraine's energy system.
Alexander Lord, an analyst at UK-based intelligence company Sybelline, said it's "likely that Kyiv is attempting to offset the revenue windfall that Russian oil and gas exporters are otherwise currently enjoying".
But Lord added the longer the war continues, the more likely it becomes that the "US will attempt to pressure Ukraine to stop these targeted strikes, as part of wider efforts to suppress global oil prices".