ANC special NEC to decide Zuma's fate on Wednesday

President Jacob Zuma's fate will be decided on Wednesday by a special national executive committee (NEC) meeting called by the party's national working committee (NWC).

The NWC met on Monday night after a meeting between Zuma and the party's top six officials on Sunday night.

The ANC said in a statement that "following extensive deliberation the national working committee resolved to convene a meeting of the NEC, which is the highest decision making body of the ANC between conferences, on Wednesday.

"Amongst the issues to be tabled to the special NEC meeting will be preparations for the State of the Nation Address (SONA) and a report back from the National Working Committee on matters mandated to it, including management of the transition between the 5th and 6th administration of government and pending actions in Parliament," the statement read.

Zuma has played all his cards and is now at open war with Ramaphosa and his supporters.

It was exactly a week ago that the NWC mandated the top officials to ask Zuma to resign.

Ramaphosa has a slight majority in the 20 member NWC and it is expected that firebrands like Ronald Lamola, Senzo Mchunu and Derek Hanekom would insist that the ANC pushes the red button on Zuma.

What options do the NWC have?

- They can agree to let Zuma deliver the State of the Nation Address (SONA) for a final time, but this is a huge risk. The president can no longer be trusted and he may announce more unilateral policy decisions, like he did with free higher education in December. It will also send out a message that Zuma still controls the ANC.

- Only the national executive committee (NEC) can recall Zuma, who will then still have to resign as president. The NWC will have to decide whether it's feasible to convene an emergency NEC of 107 people before SONA. They have 90 hours to convene a meeting. Such an emergency NEC will only have one point on the agenda: the removal of Zuma.

- Even if the NEC decides to recall Zuma, he will still have to resign like former president Thabo Mbeki did in 2008. With Zuma in complete defiance mode, he may decide not to, leaving the ANC with only one option – removing him through Parliament.

- If the NWC decides Parliament is the best way to go, they may add their support to a request by the opposition parties to Speaker Baleka Mbete to postpone SONA. A motion of no confidence has been scheduled for February 22 and this may be the earliest opportunity for the ANC to eject Zuma.

- If the NWC decides to go for the Parliament option, they will have to count on the opposition parties and a large chunk of ANC MPs to support the motion. The EFF has already written to Mbete to request a secret vote, but she can refuse this request.

- Like the DA in Cape Town last week, the ANC may prefer to table its own motion of no confidence in the president to be debated on February 22.

If the party goes this way, it is likely that the budget speech, scheduled for February 21, will also be postponed. It is implausible that the finance minister will deliver his budget before SONA.