Museveni to Test His Political Pull in Kawempe North By-Election

Mr Museveni, who also serves as NRM's national chairman, will attempt to turn the tide in favour of Faridah Nambi, daughter of the party’s vice-chairman Al-Hajj Moses Kigongo, in a race where the opposition NUP holds a commanding historical advantage.

President Museveni is set to campaign for the National Resistance Movement (NRM) flagbearer Faridah Nambi in the hotly contested Kawempe North by-election, a move that could determine whether the ruling party can stage an upset in the opposition-dominated Kampala constituency.

Mr Museveni, who also serves as NRM's national chairman, will attempt to turn the tide in favour of Nambi, daughter of the party’s vice-chairman Al-Hajj Moses Kigongo, in a race where the opposition's National Unity Platform (NUP) holds a commanding historical advantage.

The late Muhammad Ssegirinya of NUP overwhelmingly won the seat in 2021 with 41,197 votes, leaving his closest challenger, independent candidate Sulaiman Kidandala, far behind with 7,512 votes.

NRM’s Tom Johnfisher Kasenge came third with 6,946 votes.

With such a gap, Museveni’s intervention is expected to test whether NRM can reverse its electoral fortunes in Kawempe North.

Ahead of Museveni’s visit, Prime Minister Robinah Nabbanja has been on the ground, canvassing support for Nambi in areas such as Bwaise, Kazo-Angola, and Kyebando.

Ms Nabbanja urged residents to vote for a government-aligned candidate, arguing that opposition legislators cannot effectively lobby for services.

“The people of Kampala lack services because they vote wrongly. They vote for leaders who don’t sit in the NRM parliamentary caucus where key decisions on allocation of resources are made,” she said.

Such appeals have been a long-standing NRM strategy, suggesting that access to public services is linked to political allegiance. However, opposition supporters dismiss this as political blackmail.

The by-election campaign has been marked by heavy security involvement, with early violence against NUP supporters drawing widespread criticism.

Following public outcry and intervention from the Electoral Commission, security forces eased restrictions, allowing NUP’s candidate, Elias Luyimbazi Nalukoola, to hold large rallies.

The NRM, however, claims these are staged events with ferried supporters.

Museveni’s presence in Kawempe North will be closely watched, especially in light of NRM’s recent by-election losses.

In Kisoro, his campaign for Rose Kabagyeni ended in defeat as an NRM-leaning independent, Grace Akifeeza Ngabirano, took the seat.

However, by-elections in Uganda generally favour the ruling party, as it can concentrate resources on the contest.

NRM has previously faced tough battles in opposition strongholds, notably in Kyaddondo East in 2017, when Robert Kyagulanyi—now NUP leader—shocked the establishment with a landslide victory.

A similar contest in Arua Municipality turned violent in 2018, with the arrest of Kyagulanyi and others following an alleged attack on Museveni’s convoy.

More recently, in Kayunga’s mayoral by-election, NRM’s Andrew Muwonge won amid opposition allegations of vote rigging.

Nalukoola and Nambi remain the frontrunners in a race that has attracted nine candidates, including Henry Kasacca Mubiru (Democratic Party), Sadat Mukiibi (Forum for Democratic Change), and Ismail Musiitwa (People’s Progressive Party).

Independent candidates include Mohammad Luwemba, a former aide to Ssegirinya, and Moses Nsereko, who lost in NUP’s primaries.

With the election set for Thursday, Museveni’s involvement is likely to shape the final stretch of the contest, but whether it will tilt the scales remains to be seen.