By Jonan Akandwanaho
A friend of mine bought a brand-new diesel pickup several years ago. I still remember how excited he was. He had done his research, or at least he believed he had. Every conversation about vehicles ended with the same confident statement: “Diesel is cheaper. I will recover the extra money I paid for this vehicle through fuel savings.”
At the time, it was difficult to challenge his reasoning. Diesel was significantly cheaper than petrol, and for someone covering long distances, the numbers appeared to favour diesel.
Several years later, that same friend called me after servicing his vehicle. The frustration in his voice was clear. Diesel prices had risen and, at certain points, even surpassed petrol prices. Maintenance costs had also become a burden. Fuel injectors, filters, turbochargers, specialised engine oil and higher labour charges had combined into repair bills that made him question whether he had made the right choice.
During our conversation, one statement stood out.
“Jonan, the reason I bought this vehicle no longer exists.”
That conversation was not really about diesel. It was about decision-making.
Every day, we make choices that quietly shape the next five, ten or even twenty years of our lives. Some decisions are simple, such as buying a phone, purchasing a vehicle or renting a bigger office. Others are life-changing, including starting a business, taking a loan, buying land, changing careers or investing our savings.
Yet many of us approach these decisions in almost the same way. We ask one main question:
“What do I stand to gain?”
It is a natural question because every opportunity usually presents itself through its biggest advantage. A diesel vehicle promises lower fuel costs. A business promises financial freedom. A loan provides immediate access to something we cannot yet afford. A promotion promises a better lifestyle.
We are naturally drawn to the benefit that is easiest to see.
The problem is not that the question is wrong. The problem is that it is incomplete.
With time, especially through business experience, I have learnt that intelligent people rarely lose money because they lack knowledge. Many lose money because they make permanent decisions based on temporary circumstances.
They assume that what is true today will remain true tomorrow.
But history continues to prove otherwise. Markets change. Governments change. Technology changes. Customer preferences change. Fuel prices change. Life changes.
The diesel example is only one illustration.
Think about the many people who left stable employment after being told that “business is where the money is.” They resigned, rented offices, hired employees, printed business cards and expected customers to arrive immediately.
Some discovered that entrepreneurship offers freedom, but it also comes with uncertainty. A business can operate for months without paying its owner. If the only reason for starting that business was to make more money, what happens when the money takes longer than expected?
Consider someone who builds rental apartments because “property never fails.” Then a new housing development opens nearby. Vacancy rates increase. Tenants negotiate lower prices. Loan repayments remain unchanged.
Suddenly, the original reason for the investment begins to weaken.
The same thinking affects people buying land because prices are rising, investing in a crop because market prices are attractive, taking loans because interest rates appear affordable, or choosing careers simply because they are currently rewarding.
Too often, we build tomorrow based on today's conditions.
Business has taught me one important lesson: the strongest decisions are those that remain valuable even after the original reason for making them disappears.
Behavioural economists refer to this tendency as recency bias — the belief that what is happening now will continue happening in the future.
When fuel prices are low, we assume they will remain low. When commodity prices are high, we assume they will continue rising. When customers are many, we assume they will always be there.
But markets have a way of challenging certainty.
The COVID-19 pandemic reminded the world of this reality. Hotels that once enjoyed full occupancy suddenly had empty rooms. Airlines grounded aircraft. Restaurants, schools, transport companies and tourism businesses faced unprecedented disruption.
The businesses that survived were not necessarily those that had made the highest profits before the crisis. Many survived because they had prepared for uncertainty rather than assuming good times would last forever.
This is why I admire entrepreneurs who think beyond immediate benefits. They do not only ask, “How much will I make?”
They ask:
“What could make me lose?”
They do not only calculate returns; they calculate resilience.
They understand that every opportunity carries hidden risks, and every major decision deserves an uncomfortable conversation before commitment.
One of the greatest disciplines in business is developing what I call second-question thinking.
Most people stop after the first question because it confirms what they want to hear. Wise decision-makers ask one more question — the uncomfortable question that forces them to look beyond excitement and consider reality.
Most people ask:
“What do I stand to gain?”
Successful people ask:
“What if this changes?”
That may be the question most people forget.
It is a simple question, but it has protected businesses from collapse, helped families avoid unnecessary debt and saved investors from costly mistakes.
It forces us to think beyond today's excitement and recognise that markets, technology, governments and circumstances are constantly changing.
Once you ask that question, other important questions follow:
- If fuel prices change, will I still want this vehicle?
- If customers reduce by half, will this business survive?
- If my salary delays for three months, can I still repay this loan?
- If interest rates rise, will this investment remain comfortable?
- If the reason for making this decision disappears tomorrow, will I still believe it was the right decision?
All these questions come from one place:
What if this changes?
Life has a way of changing the rules without warning. Fuel that was once affordable becomes expensive. A booming industry slows down. A promising technology becomes outdated. A stable job disappears. A reliable customer moves away. A currency weakens. An unexpected crisis changes everything.
The people who survive these moments are not always those who predicted the future correctly. They are those who prepared for the possibility that the future would look different from the present.
So, the next time you are about to buy a car, start a business, take a loan, invest in property, leave employment or make any decision that could shape your future, do not only ask what you stand to gain today.
Pause and ask the question most people forget:
“If the reason I am making this decision disappears tomorrow, will this still be a good decision?”
That question may not stop you from buying.
But it might save you from regretting why you bought.
The author is the CEO, Jonakee Holdings Limited