By Belguin Prosper Lumu
First and foremost, I thank the Ugandan security forces for the bravery they showed in responding to the bombings. You may not be perfect sometimes, but we surely love you as our forces and believe in the fact that you have us Ugandans at heart.
You are our own very best, always. I also send sympathy to all families that have lost loved ones or gotten injured by these cowardly acts of terrorists.
Amidst all this, we should be confident that our gallant men and women in uniform will not rest until the perpetrators are broken.
Lets look at my observations of these bombings and the sense I make of them.
If ISIS has claimed responsibility, then this is the most logical explanation for these recent bombings as observed overtime.
The First Bombings
The first bombings (bus and komamboga) were most likely not carried out by ISIS but ADF, and that is why they were amateurish and killed a few with a small blast radius while the other one (in the bus) killed only the carrier (which bomb i believe could have exploded accidentally or been wired in an amateur way hence small blast radius).
Plus, in the Komamboga bombing, it was planted and left to detonate but not a suicide act (something I believe ISIS would find cowardly).
I am made to believe that this was clearly ADF but probably only under pressure to prove itself in some sort of recruitment process or acceptance process by a funder like ISIS. Those two attacks were probably done by ADF in an effort to show ISIS that they could carry out terrorism.
The operation was seemingly however, terribly unsuccessful on the two accounts and carried out in an amateurish and cowardly way probably, according to ISIS' terrorism culture (ISIS seems to believe in human sacrifice to make targets more precise). Nevertheless, probably ISIS claimed responsibility because ADF carried them out under motivation by ISIS.
The second bombings
So, these recently well coordinated ones (CPS and Jubilee house) with a larger blast radius (almost reaching the Kyadondo bombings), and their simultaneously well coordinated timing with even braver suicide candidates, were too well coordinated for ADF to have carried out.
There is a possibility truly that these were carried out by ISIS trying to show ADF how it is done and how it should be done.
We can see how the suicide bombers bravely walked with back packs all the way into city centre and attempted to hit well protected security places. This is "bravery" according to ISIS.
We can also see that as the first blast went off and security got diverted there, another one went off after a few minutes. This is timely coordination.
As if that was not enough, their agents even had more in stock but for whatever reason, they could not timely carry it out like their counterparts but instead got a misunderstanding in execution. This is called motivation.
Wherever those other bombs were being directed, our security's ability to multitask on different locations was being tested and stretched.
The same tactic that was used by Alshabab in 2010 in Kampala and same tactic AlQaeda used on 9/11 in USA. Same day simultaneous attacks.
The level of coordination, timing and motivation, if this was a class session that ISIS was giving to ADF, must have left ADF in shock. This means that these cowards have simply been motivated more, the very reason we have to work with security to increase vigilance and make the world smaller for the perpetrators.
If my observations are right, I am made to believe that these were probably only training sessions. A bigger and more bold move if not moves, can likely come, being just a matter of where and when. Probably more sophisticated and more coordinated in which ISIS will probably task ADF to try again or this time be a direct coordination.
With this possibility, it is important to listen to the security advise given by our Uganda security of keeping the vigilance. However, even amidst tension, we should remember that since 1986, we have fought battles and overcame them. Our men and women in uniform took an oath and every day they have lived upto that oath. They will manage.
If this was a training session, what could be the deal between ISIS and ADF?
This could probably mean that it seems ADF is providing the human candidates (suicide bombers) while ISIS provides the financial assistance and technical training. ISIS could be teaching ADF several smuggling tactics of cash, weapons, bomb material etc.
ADF knows it will never take power any time soon (atleast for as long as NRM is in power and for as long as Uganda is not an "Islamic state") but wants to at least get recognition and respect from other international "comrades" and thus improve funding as they try to get a small region they can control and earn through "taxation" just like the Taliban and ISIS did and grew overtime then took over some regions bits by bits.
If ADF is under ISIS now, it is a clear indicator that ADF is broke. Uganda broke it and now it is using insurgent ways to prove that with funding, it can further ISIS' mannerisms.
What reality does this project?
This takes me back to the point, if ADF is in Uganda, ISIS surely is and soon (if not already), their trainers, supervisors and technical advisors are to be in Uganda to identify, groom and motivate more "martyrs" for missions once Uganda has proven a "fertile" ground.
This is where we need immigration to be more vigilant of who enters Uganda and back ground checks done more and more to see who they really are. This is also the time when immigration should be more keen on who obtains a Ugandan passport. This is also the time when the office of the Prime minister makes sure refugee management gets more strict protocols especially in camps.
The ultimate question to ask now is; HOW ARE THEY PLANNING ON RECRUITING & TRAINING MORE INDIVIDUALS?
The answer pushes us back to the reality of Ugandan youth that are crippled with wrong "Islam" and "nationalist" ideology and coupled with poverty. Where there is money and ideology, brainwash is often imminent and fast paced. That is a reality.
So, where should security look?
First and foremost, it is time to do profiling (not arresting) of all Islamic leaning schools and understand their curriculum, especially remotely located schools but thriving under unclear circumstances. These could be recruiting centres of youth at primary and secondary level. This is just a possibility not a must. So security should be careful not to indiscriminately harass Islamic schools. However, this is important to look into because when you look at terrorist activities like in France, most were recruited through schools and brain washed into becoming suicide candidates.
Security needs to carefully vet foreigners that enter as students or expatriates. These could be ISIS backed and coming to meet counter parts they are sponsoring from time to time. This is only valid in some situations. Otherwise, it is not common for a terror sponsor to meet their beneficiary in the very target country.
Security should now be able to face the reality that terrorists have cells in Uganda and cells can only be countered primarily using human intelligence by joining those cells. Here, we are talking terrorist cells NOT our usual political Kyagulanyi & Besigye cells. We are talking International cells of international terrorist groups.
This is a time when we need to think of reactivating a system General Kayihura had built of crime preventers that was connecting with wannainchi communities to gather intelligence right from homesteads.
Whoever fought this system was quite short sighted and President Museveni should think twice about that person's motives at that time.
Right now, we need something like what General Kayihura had established for Uganda, in order to create intelligence cells made of human intelligence.
Probably crime preventers had its challenges, but challenges exist everywhere and we just need solutions, always.
Crime Preventers was seemingly replaced by LDU, but LDU have instead created a bigger gap between wannainchi and intelligence. LDU are passionately hated by massses.
If the president did not know this, he should now know and he should be told by any country loving Ugandan. We need cells that interact with wannainchi freely and casually than for example deploying one covert intelligence officer from ISO or CMI to cover a village.
We need cells right into people's homesteads. Cells people welcome like how General Kayihura had done it. Think of crime preventers. But also remember that, General Kayihura believed in the crime preventers and so they believed in him too.
Do not activate crime preventers and just appoint anyone to manage them. The system will lack trust from the very top and intelligence capabilities will fail. Try it if you doubt. Let's wash away the paranoia and propaganda that crime preventers was some sort of army intending to overthrow government. Whoever created that report, must have had terrible motives.
Crime preventers carried no gun but LDU does. One with a gun and one without one, who gains control faster?
Now, as a country we are at a crossroad in which our intelligence system needs a support unit that is participated in and welcomed by the masses. It is even often good for counter intelligence than always relying on a few informers that may sometimes provide biased and misleading intelligence or information. We either create our own cells or the terrorists are going to grow from within us.
If as a country we keep being reactionary to events and always being on the defensive side, than being predictive and offensive, we shall soon dine with terrorists and our classrooms too will be full of terrorists and we shall not know. Much as it is already a public secret that General Kayihura was framed for alot of misdeeds but some government officials will continue to frustrate his freedom, it is okay. But for all the "terrible" things that we claim General Kayihura did or planned to do, lets borrow one good thing from him at least, and that is his intelligence tactics. For the sake of the nation at least.
Observation by Belguin Prosper Lumu, a market intelligence & strategy expert. Follow him on twitter via handle; @belguinprosper and www.belguinprosper.webs.com