Renowned political analyst and researcher Yusuf Serunkuma has delivered a sharp assessment of Uganda’s current electoral atmosphere, warning that entrenched governments often rely on infiltration, intimidation and strategic violence to maintain political dominance.
Speaking during Next Big Talk on Next Radio on Saturday, Serunkuma told host Canary Mugume that the practice of embedding agents within opposition movements is a common tactic for long-serving administrations.
He noted that Uganda is not an exception, explaining, “All long-staying governments tend to plant hooligans within the opposition. So it’s not true only relating to the NUP and President Museveni; it’s also true elsewhere.”
Serunkuma urged the public to avoid assuming that all individuals wearing National Unity Platform (NUP) attire are official party members. “If people buy NUP T-shirts and wear them, it doesn’t translate to membership. So if you say these are NUP members, they (NUP) don’t know who these people are,” he said, suggesting that some of those involved in disruptions may not be affiliated with the party.
He further argued that violence remains a powerful political tool globally, especially for governments intent on prolonging their hold on power. “Violence is useful to sitting governments,” he said, stressing that extended incumbencies rarely survive through “fair democratic processes.”
“Theoretically and practically, you don’t win an election after 20 years. The only way you can win an election after two decades is through violence, electoral fraud, intimidation, threats, and imprisonment,” he added.
Serunkuma also noted that incumbents often fear the energy of public crowds rather than the strength of an opposing candidate. “The incumbent isn’t afraid of the candidate; he is afraid of what the crowds surrounding the candidate can inspire them to do,” he said.
His remarks come at a time of heightened public anxiety following a violent incident in Kawempe earlier in the week. During a NUP presidential campaign rally addressed by Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, also known as Bobi Wine, police deployed dogs described by witnesses as hound-like and aggressive. Videos widely circulated online show the dogs lunging at civilians as officers used them to disperse crowds. The confrontation also involved pepper spray, forceful arrests, and aggressive maneuvers by police vehicles—scenes that have intensified public criticism of law-enforcement conduct during the campaign season.
Serunkuma said the recent arrests of opposition supporters reflect a growing pattern of securitization across the country. “About 300 members of the NUP have been arrested so far; these are fresh arrests since the electoral season began,” he noted.
The Kawempe episode is part of a broader trend. Similar clashes and disruptions have been reported in Mukono, Buikwe, Busoga, Bugisu, Lango, and Ankole, where NUP officials allege increased violence and confrontations with security forces during campaign activities.
According to Serunkuma, Uganda’s political climate has become starkly divided as the election intensifies. “There are two camps in this election; there are no other camps. We need to be serious at some point and state there are only two camps; we are debating the NUP and the sitting government,” he said.
His analysis adds to mounting commentary warning of escalating tensions, shrinking political space, and the growing securitization of electoral activities nationwide.