David Bahati addressed a news briefing soon after a chastening defeat to political upstart Eliab Naturinda Mporera in the Ndorwa West primaries for the ruling party's National Resistance Movement (NRM) flagbearer ticket.
The news briefing was captured by a grainy camera that looked no better than a Nokia relic forced into use—so much for a minister who would ideally have a professional camera roving with him.
There were reports, concerning Bahati—State Minister for Trade and Cooperatives—that he had locked up the NRM office in Kabale, where he also serves as district party chairman. He dismissed the reports with disdain.
But there were also noisy whispers floating over the rugged terrains of Kigezi that Bahati was on the verge of quitting the NRM district chairmanship—a move interpreted as clearing the path for an independent run in the January 2026 parliamentary election.
That is where the conundrum lies. And the ongoing petition before the party’s electoral tribunal in Kampala appears to have merely delayed whatever decision Bahati may be crafting behind the curtain.
To run as an independent, NRM rules dictate he must relinquish the party’s district leadership, since its constitution does not permit officeholders to run against official flagbearers.
It is a tightrope—walk away from the only political house he’s ever known, or yield to a new order and slip into the shadows.
It is the classic Elioda Tumwesigye conundrum. And the fate of the former science minister seems to ring in Bahati’s ears like the annoying, eerie buzz of a mosquito trapped in a village hut.
In 2018, Dr Elioda Tumwesigye, who had been MP for Sheema North since 2001, shifted his political ambitions to the newly created Sheema Municipality, claiming it needed NRM stewardship. He won the municipality seat in a by-election, but his luck ended there.
In 2021, Tumwesigye lost the party primary to former URA commissioner Dickson Kateshumbwa. He contested the general election as an independent, refused calls to step down from his NRM post, and was unceremoniously defeated.
He lost not just the election—but also the party’s goodwill and his ministerial seat. NRM replaced him with Engineer Yorokamu Bategana Katwiremu as de facto district chair. By the time the party held its next internal elections, Tumwesigye was an afterthought.
That is the path Bahati now seems to be surveying.
Once a vibrant MP who contributed glowingly on the floor of Parliament and even dared to challenge the government on controversial issues, Bahati’s star began to dim after he was appointed State Minister for Finance (Planning) in the March 1, 2015 reshuffle.
While Cabinet elevation raises one’s profile nationally, it tends to muffle the voices of once fiery backbenchers. The transition from firebrand to diplomat often alienates them from their grassroots base.
Bahati retained his seat in 2021, and was reassigned to the Trade, Industry and Cooperatives docket. But by then, the tides had already shifted in Ndorwa West. Twenty years in Parliament is a long stretch in Uganda’s evolving political theatre, and the electorate had clearly grown weary.
On July 17, 2025, Bahati suffered a bruising defeat. Official results from Kabale District NRM registrar Babra Ainebyona showed Eliab Mporera had won with 25,027 votes (50.9%) to Bahati’s 23,759 (48.3%). A third contender, Mwesigwa Edward, secured just 416 votes (0.8%).
It was a slim margin. But politically, it was enough to seal Bahati’s fate—unless the tribunal reverses the results, which many consider unlikely.
Mporera, a legal practitioner and first-time aspirant, ran a sharp, insurgent campaign that tapped into generational fatigue. His campaign focused on themes of accountability, fresh ideas, and the need to retire "political fossils."
Bahati’s long incumbency became his greatest liability. Detractors accused him of presiding over stagnation, particularly in service delivery and infrastructure development in Ndorwa West. Others pointed to a disconnect between him and youth voters who now dominate the constituency's demographics.
Yet, Bahati is no political pushover. A loyal cadre of the ruling party and longtime Museveni ally, he has served faithfully since first entering Parliament in 2006. His sponsorship of the controversial Anti-Homosexuality Bill in 2009 cemented his standing among conservative constituencies, even as it drew international condemnation.
His loyalty to President Museveni has never wavered. It is unclear, however, whether that loyalty will be enough to keep him in the Cabinet if he loses the Ndorwa West race in 2026, assuming he runs as an independent.
Museveni has previously warned party cadres against undermining NRM decisions. Those who defy the party line often find themselves frozen out of appointments and internal structures.
Should Bahati run as an independent, he risks following the path of other political orphans: tolerated but stripped of influence.
Still, for a man whose public life has revolved around politics for two decades, the temptation to mount one last fight may prove irresistible. Especially when the defeat came by such a narrow margin.
His challenge before the tribunal is likely his final shot at redemption within party structures. If the verdict doesn’t swing in his favor, the options narrow quickly.
He can either back Mporera and retire with dignity, perhaps awaiting an ambassadorial posting or a technocratic reassignment. Or he can go rogue—resign the district chairmanship, declare an independent run, and gamble on voter nostalgia.
It would be a bold move, but not without precedent. Many who’ve walked that road have lived to regret it.
Yet politics is also about timing—and gut instinct. Bahati knows his profile, resources, and networks in Ndorwa West remain formidable. A strong independent run could fracture the NRM vote and potentially win him the seat. But it could also isolate him permanently.
As the political chessboard in Kabale takes shape ahead of 2026, one thing is certain: David Bahati’s next move could either mark his political rebirth—or his final bow.
Either way, Ndorwa West is watching closely. And so is the party.