I have said it repeatedly: those who claim to be fighting to unseat President Museveni consistently underestimate both the man and the enormity of the task they’ve set for themselves.
In my considered view, they fail to grasp just how naturally gifted Mr Museveni is as a strategic thinker—and how much time he has invested in honing that innate ability.
Mr Museveni possesses extraordinary discipline and a sharp intellect; he reads and interprets situations faster than most. He understands, for instance, that changes in the White House have significantly reduced the financial lifelines of many who were invested in removing him from power.
Mr Museveni is also acutely aware—more than most—of the unpredictable trajectory of Donald Trump’s politics and how that has absorbed Europe’s attention with its own existential concerns. Today, European powers are too preoccupied to concern themselves with Uganda.
With Trump imposing tariffs on all sides, Europe is even reconsidering its stance on China. Ask yourself: when was the last time you saw a major international media outlet feature a story on human rights violations in Uganda?
The global narrative has shifted to tariffs and debates over whether to negotiate with Washington. In such a climate of confusion and global uncertainty, Uganda heads to the polls. This is classic Museveni terrain.
Mr. Museveni also understands the dire financial situation of many Members of Parliament as they near the end of their terms. This likely explains the timely release of Shs100 million—with an implicit dare: “Refuse it if you can.”
Very few would turn down such clandestinely offered funds. Museveni won’t be bothered by those who publicly deny receiving the money, even as they sign onto the Leader of Opposition’s list. Nor will he have his operatives leak evidence to expose their dishonesty.
This is how a seasoned tactician operates. It’s also why some in the opposition prefer to do business with Museveni rather than the leadership of their own political parties.
Ultimately, we are heading into a political season marked by dishonesty on all sides. The main opposition front is claiming to be in protest mode—a strategic miscalculation, in my view.
Internally, they are busy fighting each other over constituencies they’ve occupied for years without significantly weakening Museveni’s grip on the country.
If Mr David Rubongoya enters Parliament, how exactly does that weaken Museveni? If anything, it would likely boost Rubongoya’s personal finances, as we’ve already witnessed with some of his colleagues.
It baffles me that the leading opposition party has yet to adopt a more sophisticated approach to its political operations. They were outmatched by the state in the last election.
What changes have they made to win in areas they previously lost? Why are senior party figures competing for seats where they already enjoy strong support? Over the last five years, which NRM strongholds have they flipped to their side? Why hasn’t someone like Joel or David made a bold attempt to flip a place like Mbarara?
That would make a powerful statement.
The truth is, the opposition knows their messaging has failed to reach Uganda’s rural communities. In some villages, at weddings, speakers still openly thank God for Mr. Museveni—despite lacking piped water, electricity, and decent roads. That kind of praise, in such conditions, should be deeply telling.
Whether the opposition understands or even cares about such contradictions remains unclear. But recycling old strategies and expecting new outcomes is not a sign of smart political thinking or strategic depth.