The opposition should focus on what next after defeat

Uganda is just a few days away from the polling day of both Parliamentary and Presidential representatives as required by the Constitution of Uganda in Articles 81 and 98 respectively.

As it is well stated in the Articles 61 (a) to (h) of the same constitution explaining the function of the Independent Electoral Commission, we have seen the commission nominating candidates, launching campaigns, and giving guidance to candidates that have in one way or the other moved off track during this process.

Since November after the launch of Presidential campaigns, the Country has been politically activated with mixed reactions more focused on how the new scientific campaigns will be conducted, and up to now, this is still a challenge to most of the new political players and members of the opposition.

This all came as a result of the COVID19 pandemic that seems to be still with us for some time. In the beginning, it all seemed impossible to have elections amidst the virus that had ravaged 1000s of people in Europe, America, and South America, this only became possible after scientist’s advice on the mode of a campaign that is characterized by avoiding rallies, ensure social distancing and face masks for participants in town\village hall meetings.

This was agreed upon by all the presidential candidates but one wonders why some candidates have chosen to go against these regulations to the extent of telling their supporters that it's okay not to put on a mask?

Ugandans take Presidential campaigns seriously and candidates should take note of this fact, most of them (Ugandans) take time to analyze and contemplate the message of different candidates and this informs their voting decisions.

I will tell you that Besigye gained support in areas dominated by cattle keepers in 2006&2011 after promising to get market for their milk that was at that time Shs200 a liter compared to bottled water that cost Shs1000.

Why am I saying this? For politicians and scholars, you will agree with my 3-M formula for a political campaign and my first M represents the Message, then Money and Management.

Allow me to use this formula to analyze all the presidential candidates, Katumba Oyee inclusive. Let’s begin with NRM, its candidate President Museveni who has been in power for over 34 years with his party structured from the bottom (village) to top (national), and these structures are actively involved in mobilizing for its candidates.

To be more direct NRM has recognized 48 leaders per village, Uganda has 70,626 villages according to Independent Electoral Commission, If we get 48*70,626 that’s 3.3M managers and actually votes already in the pockets of the ruling party. Which other party or a candidate has this management?

Let’s assume all the 48 village NRM managers mobilize 5 other members each, 48*5*70,626, this is close to 16.9M votes out of 17M registered voters. Why should I then not advise the opposition to prepare for what we call exit strategy in Business?

Let’s now look at the 2^nd M which is the Money, NRM has over 300 members of parliament, each member remits a monthly contribution of let’s say 500,000 off their salary which I believe is more than this, that means every month the party will receive 150m and in a year that will be 1.8billin then close to 10billion in fiver years.

Let’s assume administration consumes 3 billion, the whole 7 billion is there to mobilize support for the party. Let’s not look at the contributions made by other foreign-friendly political parties, who have the capacity to mobilize these resources if not NRM? Am I not even too late to congratulate the NRM?

My last M of the formula, the Message, is now the most important part of any political campaign and in Uganda’s perspective, this is where Katumba Oyee gets the impartiality to compete with all the rest, and this is where every opinion counts.

But let’s also analyze the campaign message of our main candidates whom we agree that to some extent they posses the other first Ms. I will not give much attention to the sloganeering of #Securing YourFuture, #RenewedUganda, #AnewUganda, #KatumbaOyee, etc,

I will go straight to what candidates have been propagating to electorates at meetings, and in media. President Museveni’s campaign message has been focused on household Income for every family, I attended his meeting when he visited my home town Rukungiri and encouraged us to focus on what can get us out of poverty, use the peaceful environment ushered in by his Government, take advantage of the infrastructure in place to enrich ourselves.

This is more real and possible to me, In fact, the questions we should be asking the President is to provide us markets for what we are producing as citizens, but unfortunately we seem not to be producing something at the household level. He then talks of Industrialization which not only solves the unemployment equation but also fosters economic growth.

Other presidential candidates like the renowned Musician (Bobi Wine) whom I personally miss in the music world seems to be clueless on issues of Economy. His message has been more on removing Museveni whom he calls a dictator but not on what he intends to do for the country.

You may argue that the NUPs manifesto is out and reference can be made to it but a leader must echo what is in his policy document. Sensational messaging only appeals to the excited few and it equated to heat vapor that evaporates within a short period of time.

And by the way, let’s say we are removing Museveni then what? These are the questions people are asking and the NUP campaign heads should on providing answers to these emerging concerns. Our problems are not individual-based, we want a Government that will create employment for the young people, a Government that will ensure the safety of its citizens, this is the Government that will win our hearts.

As I conclude, let me factor in the timing in my formula which appears to be a big challenge to the rest of the candidates, they are all potentials in the right race but at the wrong time, at a time when President Museveni is strong at all the 3-Ms and deep-rooted at grassroots.

All the above put Museveni ahead of everyone with a predictable 80+% ahead of 14^th Jan Elections and the rest of the candidates should start thinking of how to manage the post-defeat situation that awaits them, this should be done in consideration of the rights of other Ugandans who love peace and continuity of this great country.

 

Rukundo Paul Rwabihurwa

A University Lecturer and a Voter in Rubabo, Rukungiri.