Kira Municipality Member of Parliament Ibrahim Ssemujju Nganda becomes the latest member of the next parliament to express interest in unseating his ‘friend’ Rebecca Alitwala Kadaga as speaker of the House.
Already Kadaga has a menace in Deputy Speaker Jacob Oulanya who has refused to be fazed by the exciting comping in parliament as members outdo themselves to dazzle Kadaga in anticipation of future favors.
The race has predominantly been an NRM one, and for the previous number of times decided at State House Entebbe in the presence of samosa, tea, juice, and cakes, what you will call the caucus.
And just like many have started revealing, Kadaga in 2016 during such meeting vowed she was taking her last lap to climax a 10-year reign at parliament which she has fully maximized and created a cult of sorts.
According to government chief whip Ruth Nankabirwa and NRM Vice-chairman Godfrey Kiwanda Ssuubi, the party in the previous election dissuaded Jacob Oulanya and asked him to stand at the waiting lobby as Kadaga wound up.
It is now time and Kadaga’s bus won’t stop for Oulanya to hop in, the man from Omoro must now seize the chair from Kamuli and the party is on very loud alerts from some members that they will not accept whatever decision comes from the samosa meetings if such decisions do not come with the name Kadaga imprinted on the Speakership.
While NRM ponders on this, Ssemujju comes and throws a spanner in the works, announces he will be running for speaker.
Indeed, from my perspective, Ssemujju stands no chance given the demography in the next parliament where his party comes second to the National Unity Platform (NUP).
However, his declaration makes matters complicated for both the Members of the opposition and those of the NRM.
Given the available big number of NRM legislators, should Kadaga or Oulanya proceed to stand against the party’s decision, which will most likely happen, the next round of votes should be obtained from the opposition legislators.
Already, NUP legislators have maintained they will proceed with the decision whispered to them by their Principal Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu alias Bobi Wine.
It should be noted though that during his presidential campaign in Kamuli, Bobi Wine soundly endorsed Kadaga which means he may not be far away from the candidature.
But what happens if he proceeds with Kadaga and snub Ssemujju? Then the opposition will have the right to substantiate their claim that NUP is more of a danger to the opposition than it is to the NRM.
And again, should he endorse Ssemujju fully, then the MPs of NUP who decide to proceed with Kadaga will have justified the fact that they were only seeking a political office and not subscribed to NUP ideology.
But still, should the opposition decide to go with a block vote for Ssemujju, the calculations for both Kadaga and Oulanya become complicated.
Hence Ssemujju’s presence creates a complex puzzle for NUP and an even complicated scenario for Kadaga and Oulanya.