Will Katonga's 'Tsunami' reshape Opposition politics?

As the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) teeters on the brink of potential dissolution, whispers are growing louder about what the faction led by Dr Kizza Besigye, operating from Katonga Road, is planning.

Could this be the political 'tsunami' that will redefine opposition politics in Uganda as the country heads toward the 2026 general elections?

The group, often described as resilient and seasoned, has been at the forefront of pushing for accountability and refocusing the opposition struggle.

While their counterparts at the FDC headquarters in Najjanankumbi initially mocked them, the Katonga faction has remained serious about their mission.

Patrick Amuriat, the FDC President, expressed deep concern over the actions of the Katonga faction during a press briefing on Wednesday.

He criticised the group for what he described as "reckless behaviour that threatens to dismantle the very foundations of the party." Amuriat warned that such moves could not only weaken the FDC but also create unnecessary divisions within the opposition, ultimately benefiting the ruling party.

"This is not the time for disunity. The opposition needs to stand together if we are to make any meaningful impact in the upcoming elections," Amuriat stated, urging the Katonga faction to reconsider their approach.

Amuriat further noted that the FDC's leadership is still open to dialogue and reconciliation, but only if the Katonga faction is willing to engage constructively.

He emphasised that any actions leading to the dissolution of the party would be a betrayal to the millions of Ugandans who have placed their trust in the FDC.

"Our supporters are watching closely, and we owe it to them to maintain the integrity and unity of the party," Amuriat added.

Francis Mwijukye, an influential member of the Besigye faction, asserts, "We are a force to be reckoned with. We are pushing for democracy and defiance, and the good thing is we have a good relationship with the other opposition groups."

His statement underscores the faction's intention to collaborate with other opposition forces, a move that could consolidate their influence ahead of the 2026 elections.

The faction's bold announcement that they are even willing to dissolve the FDC—a party once dear to them—has sent shockwaves through Uganda's political landscape.

It is no longer business as usual within the FDC, as the faction seems prepared to chart a new course that could disrupt the status quo.

"The masses are already confused because of the FDC mess," says Asuman Basalirwa, a prominent opposition figure. "What would have been good is reconciliation. I don't see this FDC shaking the political sphere as it once did."

The conversation has shifted dramatically, with many now questioning whether the Besigye faction is the next big thing in Ugandan politics.

Is this the 'tsunami' that will reshape opposition politics, or is it merely a storm that will pass without significant impact?

Despite the internal turmoil, the Katonga faction is reportedly considering forming a new political umbrella.

However, the question remains whether this new entity will gain the traction needed to influence the political arena as decisively as the FDC once did.

As Uganda's political elite watch closely, the next few months will be crucial in determining whether this faction's bold moves will indeed create a lasting impact or if the FDC's potential dissolution will lead to further fragmentation within the opposition.

One thing is clear: the political landscape in Uganda is on the cusp of significant change, with the Katonga faction poised to play a pivotal role.