Low Voter Turnout in Kawempe By-Election: A Case of Intimidation and Poor Mobilisation?

A local resident, Sulaina Mbabazi, told the Nile Post: “I wanted to vote, but I saw what happened in Kayunga and other by-elections. I can’t risk my life when we know the results might already be decided.”

The much-anticipated Kawempe North by-election saw an unexpectedly low voter turnout, leaving many questioning what could have gone wrong. Unlike the enthusiasm that marked the 2021 general elections, polling stations across the constituency remained largely deserted for most of the day.

While multiple factors contributed to this, two key issues stood out: voter intimidation and the failure to declare the day a public holiday.

From the early morning hours, security forces both in uniform and plainclothes were heavily deployed across polling stations, a sight that may have deterred some voters from stepping out to cast their ballots.

Reports of surveillance of opposition strongholds, arbitrary stop and search operations, and the visible presence of armed personnel created an atmosphere of fear.

Several voters, particularly those aligned with the opposition National Unity Platform (NUP), expressed concerns about possible violence, leading many to stay away from the polling stations.

The memories of past elections marred by clashes between opposition supporters and security forces were still fresh, and for some, avoiding the polls seemed like the safer option.

A local resident, Sulaina Mbabazi, told the Nile Post: “I wanted to vote, but I saw what happened in Kayunga and other by-elections. I can’t risk my life when we know the results might already be decided.”

Journalists covering the election were also not spared. Some were beaten, their equipment confiscated, and others were prevented from accessing certain areas. This further heightened fears of a controlled election, discouraging voter participation.

Unlike in the general elections, where voting day is usually declared a public holiday to allow citizens to exercise their civic duty, this by-election fell on a regular working day. Many potential voters, especially those employed in informal sectors such as markets and transport services, could not afford to leave their jobs to stand in line at polling stations.

The absence of a public holiday also meant that there was little room for large-scale mobilization. Political parties, particularly the opposition, struggled to convince their supporters to take time off work to vote.

A boda boda rider in Bwaise, one of the most densely populated areas of Kawempe, told our team, “I support NUP, but if I don’t work today, I won’t earn anything. No one is going to pay my bills for me.”

Throughout the day, polling stations witnessed sporadic activity, with voters trickling in at an unusually slow pace. Electoral officials sat idly at some polling centres, waiting for voters who never showed up. Even areas considered NUP strongholds, which had overwhelming support for the late Muhammad Ssegirinya in 2021, saw significantly reduced numbers.

By mid-day, election observers had already raised concerns about the low turnout. Even at peak hours, there were no long queues, no significant voter engagement, and no visible excitement that typically characterizes high-stakes elections.

The stark contrast between the 2021 elections and this by-election lies in the voter enthusiasm and political landscape. In 2021, both NUP and NRM candidates aggressively mobilized their bases, with Ssegirinya winning by a landslide in a wave that saw NUP dominate Kampala. This time, however, the dynamics were different.

NRM Voters: Unlike 2021, where NRM struggled to gain traction in urban areas, the ruling party was more organized this time. However, without large financial incentives or aggressive mobilization, their support base remained limited. Many of their voters, who often rely on state-driven handouts, did not turn up in expected numbers.

NUP Voters: NUP’s supporters, who formed the majority of voters in the last election, seemed largely demoralized. With their previous MP in prison and complaints of election rigging in past by-elections, many saw little hope in the process. The opposition’s failure to effectively rally its base in the face of security intimidation also hurt turnout.

The low voter turnout in Kawempe North’s by-election was not just a result of voter apathy but a combination of strategic intimidation, failure to prioritize voting as a national event, and a shift in political energy compared to 2021.

While NUP still enjoys dominance in the constituency, the reduced turnout raises questions about the effectiveness of its mobilization strategy and whether voter fatigue is setting in among its supporters.