Despite the announcement of a fragile truce between the internationally recognised government and the Iran-backed Houthi militia, Yemen continues to witness intermittent military developments on the ground.
The Houthi militia maintains control over the capital, Sanaa, while the internationally recognised government declared, on Friday, December 12, 2025, the city of Aden as the country’s temporary capital.
Last week, forces affiliated with the Southern Transitional Council (STC) took control of vast areas in the south and east of the country following limited clashes with units of the First Military Region in Seiyun, the capital of Wadi Hadramawt.
The confrontations ended with the capture of the region’s headquarters and the strategic Seiyun Airport, thereby extending their influence over the territory of the former People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen prior to 1990.
Southern forces seized areas that fall within the geographical boundaries of South Yemen before unification—regions that had long suffered from instability due to the presence of terrorist organisations.
In 2015, Al-Qaeda took control of Hadramawt governorate, Yemen’s largest oil-producing region, which contains seven productive sectors, more than 110 oil fields, approximately 1,500 wells, and estimated reserves amounting to tens of billions of barrels.
The group established Mukalla as its stronghold, seized oil and financial facilities, and carried out summary executions, before being expelled by Emirati forces in 2016.
Cells of the organisation remain present in the governorate, particularly in Wadi Hadramawt, which southern forces liberated last week from units affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood.
Al-Qaeda elements continue to operate in several Yemeni governorates, especially in the south, carrying out intermittent attacks against army and security forces over the years.
These developments follow the unification of southern and eastern governorates under the control of a single military force, a move that disrupted the calculations of terrorist organisations that had previously exploited division and chaos to entrench themselves.
These forces are engaged in counterterrorism operations, and their unification was crowned by the liberation of the valley, the expulsion of Al-Qaeda, and the severing of all its supply lines and weapons smuggling routes.
Security observers believe that stability in Yemen—and the region more broadly—as well as the fight against terrorism, have become contingent on southern unity, a conclusion reinforced by recent developments on the ground.
In the latest military escalation, a joint operation under the banner “Decisive Action” was launched on December 15, 2025, in Abyan governorate in southern Yemen, to confront what was described as a tripartite terrorist alliance comprising Al-Qaeda, the Houthi militia, and the Muslim Brotherhood.
The operation comes as part of efforts to complete “Arrows of the East,” launched in August 2022, aimed at securing and cleansing Abyan and its surroundings of terrorist elements.
Cutting Off Terrorist Supply Lines
The Southern Transitional Council’s Security Belt Forces stated in a communiqué: “Our Southern Armed Forces and security services today launched the ‘Decisive Action’ operation in Abyan governorate, under the leadership of Brigadier General Mohsen Abdullah Al-Wali, commander of the Security Belt Forces.”
The statement added that the operation represents “a continuation of ‘Arrows of the East,’ within ongoing efforts to secure the governorate, cut off supply lines to terrorist elements and organisations—namely Al-Qaeda—and dry up their sources of support.”
Al-Wali said the forces are proceeding “with full determination to sever the supply routes of terrorist groups and prevent any attempts at their return or reorganisation.”
He stressed that “the security of Abyan is a top priority, and the forces will not allow the return of terrorism or any threat to citizens’ safety and the governorate’s stability.
” He added that the forces “will continue to pursue elements of evil and terrorism into their mountain and valley hideouts and work to eradicate them completely.”
Al-Wali described the new operation as “an extension of the series of security and military victories achieved by our Southern Armed Forces in Hadramawt and Al-Mahra governorates.”
Stability as a Priority
In early December 2025, southern forces announced the launch of “Promising Future,” an operation aimed at “liberating Wadi and Desert Hadramawt and Al-Mahra from military dominance” by what they described as “Muslim Brotherhood terrorist groups.”
After advancing through the Hadramawt Plateau where tribal groups that had seized oil fields a week earlier were expelled the forces declared control over the headquarters of the First Military Region and Seiyun Airport, completing their takeover of Wadi Hadramawt before moving toward Al-Mahra governorate along the border with Oman.
In this context, Farea Al-Muslimi, Yemen expert at Chatham House, said:
“The Houthis publicly present themselves as the last defenders of the unity of the Yemeni republic. But I am fully convinced that there is concern within the military leadership.
There is now a unified leadership in the south. Moreover, some areas in southern Yemen had become convenient hubs for arms and human smuggling. The Southern Transitional Council has adopted a more stringent approach there.”
Strategic Gains
The liberation of Wadi Hadramawt from terrorism will halt Iranian weapons smuggling to the Houthis, which for a decade had passed through Al-Mahra and Wadi Hadramawt, according to Waddah bin Atiyah.
It will also close major drug trafficking routes linked to networks associated with Iran and Hezbollah.
He pointed to “the establishment of security and stability aligned with the local environment, thanks to popular support for southern forces drawn from the local community, unlike the First Military Region forces arriving from northern Yemen, areas under Houthi control.
” He also cited “breaking the power of terrorist groups that had previously expanded by benefiting from relations with many leaders of the First Military Region, and replacing them with disciplined southern forces that prevent the return of terrorism—an effort that serves both internal and external stability.”
He further highlighted “strengthening the authority of the people of Hadramawt and Al-Mahra in managing their own security locally, a step seen as granting communities a greater role in overseeing their security and economic affairs, away from the influence of corrupt forces and leaderships coming from the far north.”
Bin Atiyah also noted “ending the political and military influence of forces linked to the Houthis and the Muslim Brotherhood, serving regional stability and international peace and security,” as well as securing key internal routes linking Wadi Hadramawt to the coast, Al-Mahra, and Shabwa, and external routes with Saudi Arabia, Oman, Marib, and Al-Jawf.
This would ensure the uninterrupted flow of oil trade, contributing to improved services and the local economy.
Additional gains include “tightened security and preventing the use of the vast lands of the valley and Al-Mahra as safe havens for smugglers and armed gangs, and as corridors for smuggling and illegal activities that persisted for years.”
He concluded that “unifying security and military decision-making in southern regions under a single national leadership mandated by the people achieves stability, coherence, and effective control,” and emphasised “strengthening the south’s political position in negotiations, as control over key areas gives the southern cause greater momentum in any talks concerning the future shape of the state and the status of southerners regionally and internationally.”
Meanwhile, observers believe that the southern forces’ moves came at a time when Al-Qaeda was planning a return, meaning that this preemptive action placed the group in a real predicament.
The organisation had issued several statements and recordings threatening southern forces with terrorist attacks and coordinated with tribal militias to incite rebellion, but southern unity thwarted all such plots.