Veteran journalist and political analyst Richard Baguma has cautioned that increasing fragmentation within Uganda’s opposition is weakening political competition ahead of the 2026 general elections.
Speaking during the NBS Morning Breeze
on Friday, Baguma argued that disunity among opposition parties has diluted their political impact and diminished the intensity of campaign activities. He noted that campaigns tend to generate momentum when strong, united sides compete, but the current political landscape lacks such cohesion.
“We have a fragmented opposition and this makes them quite weak. Most times, campaigns have heat when you have strong competing sides,” he said.
Baguma further criticised the strategic disorganisation exhibited during campaign activities, pointing out that several candidates often campaign simultaneously within the same constituencies.
He questioned the effectiveness of such an approach, asking how many people could realistically attend scattered gatherings when candidates divide their audiences across multiple locations.
“Multiple candidates are in multiple places in the same constituency. How many people are there to attend your gatherings?,” he asked.
He also commented on the conduct of security forces, suggesting that their actions during the campaign season have had a significant influence on political messaging, stating that security agencies were “giving campaign messages to the candidates by their methods.”
Baguma’s remarks come amid an escalating wave of arrests targeting members of the National Unity Platform (NUP) during campaign activities led by its presidential candidate, Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu popularly known as Bobi Wine.
Several arrests occurred along the Mbarara–Ibanda Road, where Bobi Wine was traveling to his second rally in the Ankole sub-region, scheduled for Bwizibwera, Mbarara District. Bobi Wine accused police of assaulting and attacking his supporters, adding that some were targeted by individuals wearing NRM-branded T-shirts and holding posters of President Museveni.
Those arrested were subsequently produced in various courts around the country and now face a range of charges, including obstruction of police officers, robbery, malicious damage to property, and multiple traffic-related offences such as driving without licences, riding without helmets, and operating vehicles without insurance.
Others were charged with participating in unauthorised military-style drills, a charge arising from an incident on February 12, 2025, when the accused conducted a parade at NUP’s Makerere–Kavule headquarters to celebrate Bobi Wine’s 43rd birthday.
Among the accused are several prominent NUP figures, including deputy spokesperson and Nakawa East MP aspirant Alex Waiswa Mufumbiro, Kampala Central Woman Lord Councillor aspirant Saudah Madaada, party school coordinator Dorren Kaija, and six of Bobi Wine’s close aides, including Edward Ssebufu (Eddie Mutwe) and Achileo Kivumbi. All of those charged have pleaded not guilty.
NUP leadership has condemned the arrests, describing them as part of ongoing political persecution meant to weaken the opposition ahead of the 2026 general elections.
Party officials reiterated calls for the immediate release of detained members and urged the government to uphold constitutional rights to freedom of assembly and political expression.
They also raised concerns about the broader justice system, pointing out that many political prisoners have spent more than five years in jail without trial, a situation they say represents a serious breach of due process.