Low, Low Voter Turnout But Nalukoola, NUP Savour 'Bitter-Sweet' Victory

Elias Nalukoola's victory looked to be etched in stone yet events leading up to the Electoral Commission returning officer Henry Makabayi's declaration of the by-election results made anything possible and the worst fears ripe and palpable - at least in NRM minds

Lawyer Elias Luyimbazi Nalukoola's victory was etched in stone. From the moment he won the National Unity Platform (NUP) flag, he had a leg at the steps of Parliament as Kawempe North legislator.

Yet events leading up to the Electoral Commission returning officer Henry Makabayi's declaration of the by-election results made anything possible and the worst fears ripe and palpable - at least in NRM minds.

The Chief of Defence Forces, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, had sounded a chilling and ominous message that left many expecting the "usual".

"NRM must win Kawempe North even if it means killing all polling agents, do it," Muhoozi said. "My UPDF and JATT, make sure NRM wins."

But the will of the people towered over the Ivory Tower in the lush-green Makerere Hill, giving NUP a semblance of by-election revenge after the controversial loss in the Kayunga LC5 race in December 2021.

MP-elect Nalukoola thanked the voters for standing firm against what he termed as "dictatorial systems".

"This is not my victory. It is the Victory of Uganda and the people of Kawempe North," he said.

"I thank NUP and all leaders of the party, the foot soldiers, resident of Kawmepe North and Ugandans, your voice has been heard. Let us work towards enhancement of democracy in Uganda."

NUP secretary general David Lewis Rubongoya could not have put it more succinctly, saying it was a "bitter sweet victory".

For a constituency in excess of 199,000 voters up from the 190,000 in 2021 general election, the 28,059 total votes (including the spoilt ballots) made a mockery of the highly-publicised by-election.

For the record, 28,059 is a numbing 14.1% of 199,000 registered voters, meaning nearly 90% of the voters in Kawempe North were technically disenfranchised.

Recent events in the run-up to Election Day and during the voting has shown that the State deploys intimidation tactics and delays in opening polling stations to limit the number of voters in opposition-leaning strongholds.

The pouring of a brutal force of baton, iron whips and bullets on the streets days to the Election Day was a textbook with a blank cheque for the ruling candidate.

The military men, from Joint Anti-Terrorism Tastforce to regular soldiers and special forces, flaunted their will for all to see, targeting journalists in what appeared to say "if we can clobber journalists, now what you mere voters?"

A low voter turn-out would favour NRM's Faridah Nambi in a constituency still smarting with the NUP after the late Muhammad Ssegirinya's landslide victory in the 2021 vote.

Independent candidate Hanifah Karadi was quick to lay down her fears after casting her vote at St Paul’s Church of Uganda polling station in Kyebando Central, expressing concern over ballot pre-ticking and voter intimidation.

Ms Karadi said while the voting day appeared calm, many voters were hesitant to turn up, citing a heavy security presence.

“We have received reports of ballot papers that were already pre-ticked. This, combined with the intimidation of both voters and candidates, is very concerning,” said Ms Karadi, who came third with 381 votes.

“We are worried about the kind of democracy Uganda practices when candidates face intimidation and ballots are pre-ticked."

The concerns raised by Ms Karadi came amid broader challenges in the Kawempe North by-election, which was organised to fill the seat left vacant after the death of former MP Muhammad Ssegirinya in January.

Of the 28,049 votes counted, returning officer Makabayi told the nation shortly after midnight from the tally centre in Makerere University that 17,764 had picked Nalukoola as their new honourable.

His nearest challenger, Faridah Nambi, picked up 8,593 votes, while none of the other eight candidates could manage 400 votes.

Moses Nsereko, who had come second-last out of 10 aspirants in the battle for NUP ticket three weeks ago, maintained that consistency with 32 votes, 10 more than former president Milton Obote's son Edward Stanley Maitum.

For NUP, the result was never in doubt under normal circumstances. But they had to earn it on a day the media fraternity was compelled to pull out foot soldiers after security rained mayhem on journalists.

Mr Rubongoya said: "This is a bitter sweet victory. We are celebrating this victory among many challenges, we still have people who are missing, journalists in hospitals, some still have their equipment confiscated, among others."

Mr Nalukoola will have just eight months to convince the voters in Kawempe North that he can carry on with representing their views in Parliament beyond 2021.

How they polled:

Edward Stanly (IND) - 22

Henry Kasacca (DP) - 100

Muhammad Lusswa (IND) - 240

Elias Nalukoola (NUP) - 17764

Sadat Mukiibi (FDC) - 239

Hanifah Karadi (IND) - 381

Ismail Musiitwa (PPP) - 39

Muhamood Mutazindwa (IND) - 186

Faridah Nambi (NRM) - 8,593

Moses Nsereko (IND) - 32

Total valid votes - 27,596

Invalid - 406

Total Ballots counted 28,010

Spoilt Ballots 49