Uganda Declares Intention to Take Over DRC's Ituri Province

Uganda has been conducting military operations in Ituri under a joint agreement with Kinshasa, primarily targeting the Allied Democratic Forces, a group accused of terrorism in both Uganda and DR Congo.

The Chief of Defence Forces (CDF), General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, has issued an ultimatum to armed forces in Bunia, the capital of the Democratic Republic of Congo's Ituri Province.

Citing the authority of his father, President Museveni, Gen Muhoozi declared Uganda’s readiness to take decisive military action if his demands are not met.

“With the authority of General Yoweri Museveni, Supreme Commander of the UPDF! I’m giving exactly 24 hours for all forces in Bunia to surrender their arms! If they don’t, we shall consider them enemies and attack them,” Muhoozi announced in a statement shared on his social media.

Uganda has been conducting military operations in Ituri under a joint agreement with Kinshasa, primarily targeting the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), a group accused of terrorism in both Uganda and DR Congo.

However, Muhoozi’s latest statements suggest a broadening of Uganda’s military objectives, raising questions about its true intentions in the region.

By targeting “all forces in Bunia,” Muhoozi’s ultimatum appears to encompass not just rebel groups like the ADF but also other actors operating in the Ituri Province.

Under the UPDF Establishment that came into force last year, the CDF has the powers to mobilise the army provided he briefed the Commander-in-Chief.

The ultimatum has sparked speculation about Uganda’s intentions in the mineral-rich Ituri Province, with many interpreting it as a signal of Uganda's growing military ambitions in the region.

Gen Muhoozi has previously expressed moral support for the M23 rebel group, a controversial stance that has added to concerns over Uganda’s involvement in eastern DR Congo.

Last week, a senior military officer was arrested on the orders of Muhoozi after allegedly receiving Shs1.2bn to eavesdrop for a Southern African nation in Uganda's military.

Muhoozi has repeatedly referred to Rwandan President Paul Kagame, widely accused of backing M23, as his "uncle" and vows to fight anyone who fights him.

This familial rhetoric are at odds with Uganda’s claims of neutrality in DR Congo conflict.

Over the weekend, the M23 made significant gains in South Kivu Province, capturing at least two major towns in Bukavu, the provincial capital.

They also seized Kavumu Airport and entered Bukavu, marking a major escalation in their campaign. The rapid advance of M23 fighters has further destabilised the region and drawn attention to the alleged support the group receives from neighbouring countries.

Muhoozi’s ultimatum is the latest in a series of provocative statements reflecting his influence in Uganda’s military and political landscape. By invoking President Museveni’s authority, he has underscored Uganda’s readiness to use force if armed groups fail to comply.

The Congolese government has yet to officially respond to Muhoozi’s ultimatum. However, President Félix Tshisekedi has previously expressed frustration with foreign interference in his country’s internal affairs.

Interestingly, Tshisekedi on Friday made headlines for skipping the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council summit in Addis Ababa, where the crisis in his own country was being discussed.

Instead, he opted for a 6,800km journey to Germany, where he is attending the Munich Security Conference. There, he took the opportunity to blame his predecessor, Joseph Kabila, for the ongoing political crisis.

"The real sponsor of the opposition that took up arms in complicity with Rwanda is hiding: it is Joseph Kabila," he said. "He does not admit it and does not assume responsibility for his actions."

Tshisekedi also met with International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor Karim Khan during his visit, further underscoring his efforts to internationalise the crisis and seek outside support for his administration.

The rapid territorial gains made by M23 over the weekend in South Kivu have added to these tensions. Tshisekedi’s government has struggled to maintain control over the region, with its military, the FARDC, often outmatched by rebel forces.

Meanwhile, Burundian forces scrambled out of South Kivu Friday evening as reports on social media suggested FARDC were also in disarray.

The shadow of the M23’s resurgence and Muhoozi’s ties to Kagame only complicate matters further, raising questions about Uganda’s true role in the unfolding crisis.