Experts have warned that the 2026 general election may see lower voter turnout than that of 2021 not only as a result of the populace’s fear of a bloody and chaotic electoral cycle that may stretch to the environment under which they cast their vote but also low confidence in the electoral commission to deliver a free and fair election and security institutions, which sometimes appear to be biased.
Voting is a right for every citizen as granted by the 1995 Constitution of Uganda, and Ugandans have participated in elections held every five years. However, the number of those who turn up at polling stations has varied over the last 20 years.
According to data from the Electoral Commission:
- In the 2001 elections, there were 10,775,836 registered voters, with 7,576,144 votes cast, meaning that only 70.31% of registered voters turned out to vote.
- In 2006, 10,450,788 people registered, and 7,230,456 votes were cast, resulting in a 69.19% turnout.
- In 2011, 14,000,000 people registered, with 8,272,760 votes cast, showing a turnout of 59.09%.
- In 2016, the voter register grew to 15,277,198, and 9,701,738 votes were cast, meaning that only 63 out of 100 registered voters participated.
- In 2021, the electoral register had 18,103,603 people, and 10,350,819 votes were cast, reflecting a turnout of 57%, leaving 7,752,784 registered voters who did not participate.
Dr. Sam Kazibwe, a political analyst, shared his insights on why Ugandans are losing interest in voting.
‘Many Ugandans are not intimidated to vote because of the environment, the explanation is in the perception that their vote doesn’t count. Joseph Stalin a Russian Communist once said that the he who casts the vote does not count much, but he who counts the vote matters a lot”
Some voters fear going to vote because of the tension that arises when they are preparing to do so, the large number of weapons present, and the cities resembling war zones.
However, Dr. Yusuf Sserunkuuma, another political analyst, argues that this is not the only reason Ugandans have lost interest in voting.
‘People lack the confidence in the democracy infrastructure of the country, therefore, no amount of guns and Mamba White Tankers can intimidate Ugandans into not showing up at the ballot.” Sserunkuuma said
Dr. Sserunkuuma explains why, despite the heavy presence of guns and fear in urban areas, Ugandans living there still turn out to vote more than those in rural areas.
“People upcountry interface less with the State, so they do not see their wellbeing being a function of the top leadership whereas, in the Urban Centres, citizens interface with the mess of the leadership in the country” Dr. Sserunkuuma added.
The electoral commission to explain how it plans to tackle the challenges faced by Ugandans hesitant to vote. He also mentioned that it is essential for voters to regain faith in their voices through the election process.
“The Electoral Commission, is ready to carry out the 2026 General Polls in a transparent, objective and accountable manner, we have already communicated the road map and we expect that every Key stakeholder will participate”
Dr. Kazibwe suggests that all these efforts may not succeed in making the 2016 general elections any different from those in the past unless measures are taken to give hope to those who cast their votes.
Experts also strongly believe that elections in Uganda have become a ritual conducted by the head of state to appear to be upholding democracy.
