From rags to riches - the case of Guyana

By | August 21, 2023

The eyes of the world economists and geopolitical experts have rapidly shifted to focus on the world's promising emerging economic giant in South America called Guyana.

Until 2015 when the America oil conglomerate ExxonMobil discovered vast amounts of oil deposits off the shores of Guyana, the country had been written off totally. It wore the crown of being the third poorest country in Latin America.

The only prominent history that had described Guyana for decades is the tragic incident that occurred in December 1978 in a very remote town called Jamestown when a Pentacostal Pastor killed 918 of the 980 believers that he had gathered in his church stuck in the middle of remote forests of the country.

Coupled with unrelenting poverty levels and the never ending racial tensions between the two large ethnic groups of the Indo-Guyanese and the Indo-Africans that form up 43% and 38% respectively of the Guyanese population of roughly 1million people, Guyana had become a country of no interest to the outside world.

As the global prices of sugar, rice and bouxite, the traditional exports of Guyana slumped so did the outside interest in the country.

However, as dramatic events in the neighbouring Venezuela unfolded which resulted in the then Venezuelan Marxist leader, Hugo Chavez turned against their former allies the US and chased all American companies from the country and out of the lucrative business of oil exploitation, the American oil companies had to work hard in order to find an alternative supply.

And indeed for 8 years, ExxonMobil has been unrelentingly scourging the mountains, the beaches, the forests and the waters of Guyana in a bid to find traces of oil formation or seepages from the hostile neighbour of Venezuela.

However in early 2015, against all exploration odds, the fortunes of this impoverished country were to change dramatically and forever when huge deposits of oil were reported to have been discovered on its shoreline.

It is reported that it is estimated that Guyana possesses more than 10 billion barrels of oil in its water coastline.

Since then, things have been drastically changing for this tiny South American country for the better.

All of a sudden, the country has become a must watch on the global economic and geopolitical radar. Guyana has now become of great interest to the investors on the international Stock Exchange markets where the economic might of ExxonMobil is tracked on a minute by minute basis 24/7.

Guyana that was billed to be one of the poorest countries with an annual total GDP of only $4.5bn, last year in 2022 recorded an impressive and unprecedented economic growth rate of 53.7%.

It is estimated that by 2027, the country will be exporting close to 1mn barrels of oil daily which will make it to climb to the top of the world list of the biggest exporters of oil ahead of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

In order to carefully leverage on this new found fortune, the Guyanese leadership have embarked on executing massive public investment projects in the country that are drastically changing not only the country's landscape but also the lifestyle and aspirations of the Guyanese people.

In order to try and avoid the fate of the oil curse that has characterized their neighbor Venezuela, the Guyanese government is carefully investing in human capital development projects in terms of improved education and health systems. They have placed ahead of themselves as their target and vision to be the most preferred medical and wellness destination in Latin America.

In order to minimize the temptation and appetite for wastage and excessive investments, Guyana has set up a sovereign fund in which a good percentage of the oil proceeds are being put for future national use.

As the English adage goes, there is no situation that is permanent. So it is true with Guyana and probably it can be true with other countries only if history is not allowed to repeat itself. Stories of countries which rose from rugs to riches and then back to rugs due to mismanagement of their new found resources are abound.

Let those that are gearing up for the black gold extract it while carefully looking over their shoulders because this resource is not infinite and it should be exploited for the benefit of the citizenry.

---- Edward Baliddawa

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