Global oil markets are on edge following the United States’ military intervention in Venezuela, a country that holds nearly 19 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves. The development has reignited fears of supply disruptions, sending oil prices higher and triggering volatility across global financial markets.
The shock comes at a time when the oil market is already under strain from ongoing sanctions on Russian crude and continued production cuts by OPEC+. Analysts say Venezuela’s central role in global energy geopolitics makes the situation particularly sensitive.
Energy and financial analyst Stephen Kaboyo says oil prices reacted sharply at the opening of markets, driven largely by expectations of supply disruptions.
“The prices moved mainly due to markets anticipating disruptions in production, distribution and shipping,” Kaboyo said. “Insurance premiums also went up. That was largely a knee-jerk reaction.”
By Tuesday morning, global crude prices were trading at around USD 61 per barrel before showing signs of stabilization as investors reassessed the situation. Kaboyo notes that while short-term volatility is likely to persist, the longer-term outlook could be very different.
“If the US proceeds to take over and upgrade Venezuela’s oil infrastructure, oil supplies could increase and eventually stabilize prices,” he said. “However, this will take time because the infrastructure is heavily degraded.”
The turbulence has not been limited to oil. Investors have moved into safe-haven assets, pushing gold prices sharply higher, while currency markets—particularly the US dollar—have remained relatively stable.
Closer to home, Uganda’s petroleum sector is closely monitoring developments. Dan Mushabe, General Manager at Mount Meru, says uncertainty in global oil markets has existed even before the Venezuela crisis.
“Sanctions on Russia and OPEC+ production cuts have already created pressure,” Mushabe said. “It’s difficult to say when or how prices will change.”
Despite this, Mushabe remains optimistic about Uganda’s long-term prospects. He argues that domestic oil production and refining will be key to shielding the country from global price shocks.
“The only real stability will come when we start producing and refining our own oil,” he said, noting Uganda’s continued reliance on imports and limited access to seaports.
Analysts warn that the Venezuela crisis represents one of the biggest upside risks to oil markets in 2026.
For now, global markets remain in a wait-and-see mode, balancing geopolitical tensions, energy transition pressures, and the hope of new oil production in including that from Uganda come late 2026.