Fear is mounting across Africa’s regional blocs as tensions in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo threaten to spiral into a wider geopolitical crisis.
With an extraordinary East African Community (EAC) and Southern African Development Community (SADC) summit on the horizon, concerns have intensified over the direction of peace efforts, especially following the latest breach of a fragile ceasefire and the installation of new M23 leadership in Goma.
The central question now is whether the Angola Roadmap or the Nairobi Peace Process will take precedence in attempts to de-escalate the crisis.
Security analysts say the appointment of political leaders in M23-controlled areas marks a significant shift in the conflict, signalling an attempt to strengthen the group’s grip on captured territories.
Simon Mulongo, a security expert, noted that Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi has long resisted negotiating with armed groups.
However, the formation of a political wing within M23 could open the door for diplomatic engagement.
“In the past, Tshisekedi was adamant about speaking to boys with rifles, but now, with political leadership in M23, there is hope for a diplomatic and political engagement between them and others involved in the struggle,” Mulongo explained.
The recent breach of the ceasefire agreement has further complicated matters, raising questions about whether M23 violated its own commitments.
Journalist and political commentator Andrew Mwenda questioned who was responsible for breaking the ceasefire, emphasizing that successful peace talks require more than just verbal commitments.
“Getting these talks to work and making the ceasefire stick is a process, not an event. Confidence-building measures need to be demonstrated in deeds, not just words, from Kinshasa,” Mwenda said.
Mulongo added that the ceasefire declaration had no concrete terms or agreed-upon duration, making its sustainability uncertain.
“The ceasefire was self-declared, with no clear terms. It was assumed Kinshasa would also respect it, but there was no formal agreement,” he stated.
With M23 insisting it is not solely to blame for the renewed clashes, attention now turns to the upcoming SADC-EAC summit.
Observers believe the outcome of the summit could redefine the approach to peace efforts in DR Congo and the broader regional balance of power.
Mwenda warned that the two blocs should avoid turning the conflict into a proxy war.
“We are hoping that SADC and EAC decide not to fight each other’s wars. If Tshisekedi realizes there is no cavalry coming, both parties may take the peace process more seriously,” he said.
Mulongo echoed this sentiment, highlighting that regional interventions could shift the military and political dynamics.
“The involvement of regional actors means that if SADC tilts the balance too far, members of the EAC bloc may be forced to act in response,” he observed.
As the summit nears, the stakes remain high for the future of peace in DR Congo, with both regional and international players closely watching how events unfold.