Amidst stiff competition for the Kampala Lord Mayoral seat between People’s Front for Freedom’s Erias Lukwago and the National Unity Platform’s Ronald Balimwezo, concerns are mounting that the National Resistance Movement (NRM) will once again fail to secure victory.
Political analyst Patrick Wakida says voters in Kampala are driven more by the individual appeal and voice of candidates than by service delivery.
For more than two decades, the ruling NRM has consistently struggled to win key leadership positions in Kampala, including the office of Lord Mayor, where opposition loyalty has remained firm.
Lord Mayor Erias Lukwago has served three terms since January 14, 2011, when he succeeded the late Al Haji Nasser Ntege Ssebagala.
In the 2011 elections, NRM fronted Peter Sematimba, remembered as the last strong challenger Lukwago faced. Lukwago secured 229,325 votes against Sematimba’s 119,015.
In 2016, NRM’s candidate Daniel Kazibwe, popularly known as Ragga Dee, failed to make a mark, securing less than 30 percent of Lukwago’s tally.
Ragga Dee contested again in 2021 but was heavily defeated, with Lukwago winning 194,592 votes against his 23,388.
These repeated losses have raised questions about whether NRM has permanently lost the Lord Mayor’s office in Kampala.
For the 2026 elections, the party has fronted Kizito Moses Nsibirwa as its candidate.
Meanwhile, opposition divisions are evident, with NUP’s Ronald Balimwezo and PFF’s Erias Lukwago both vying for the same seat.
Wakida argues that while these disagreements may weaken the opposition’s cohesion, they are unlikely to change Kampala’s voting trends.
“It is unfortunate that opposition parties have failed to agree on one candidate, but there is still little hope for NRM to win because city residents remain loyal to the opposition symbol,” he said.
NRM Secretary General Richard Todwong, however, blames the party’s poor performance on what he calls the indecisiveness of Kampala voters, whom he accuses of failing to recognize the party’s contribution.
