The just concluded Kayunga LCV by-election, where NRM's Andrew Muwonge triumphed over NUP's Harriet Nakwedde, has left Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine and his party, NUP, in a tailspin.
Although NUP has contested the outcome claiming that its candidate won with a margin of over 15,000 votes, the party's loss in an area where Kyagulanyi comfortably defeated President Museveni has left a bitter taste in the mouth.
Had NRM lost, it would have cemented the belief that NRM's support in Buganda has slipped away.
There is a possibility of another by-election in Mityana, if the Court of Appeal upholds the High Court decision to annul Joyce Bagala's victory as Mityana Woman MP.
This, some analysts believe, would be the ultimate test of whether NRM is slowly regaining its influence in Buganda or if the violence riddled victory in Kayunga was a flash in the pan.
Yet some analysts believe that given the challenges and security interference NUP faced, not much should be read into NRM's Kayunga victory.
On his part, Kyagulanyi posted on twitter that what happened in Kayunga was just a microcosm of what President Museveni did in January 2021 general elections. He rigged the election.
"For perspective, Museveni gave orders that his candidate in Kayunga must be declared at all costs. His tools got to work. Nabbanja (his PM) bribed voters. RDCs arrested our key people. Incredible ballot stuffing. Even then, we maintained a clear 15000 vote difference," Kyagulanyi wrote on twitter.
Kyagulanyi said for all Ugandans who are "angry disturbed, disgusted" there is a need to have an honest conversation about the direction of the struggle against "dictatorship" in this country.
Mercy Munduru,a programme manager governance at Action Aid Uganda said the violence in the Kayunga by election could make some people lose interest in the electoral process.
"We need to have clarity in leadership in an electoral process, which must be legitimate. We need to define who should take leadership in an election. Otherwise, we shall keep seeing the same occurrences during elections in Uganda," she said.
The NRM director information and publicity, Emmanuel Dombo said NUP were just bad losers.
"NUP is a product of Uganda's democracy. I want to congratulate them because they have overtaken FDC. They may want to criticise the democratic processes, but they have also benefited," he said.
