Uganda's political opposition finds itself entangled in scandalous waters as allegations surface that a faction within the group has sought assistance from the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) to address their financial crisis.
This development has left many questioning the true essence and viability of the opposition.
Within a span of one year, the NRM has signed cooperation agreements with the Democratic Party (DP) and the Uganda People's Congress (UPC).
Now, the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) is experiencing internal strife amid rumors that the party's top leadership has sought funding from their electoral rival, President Yoweri Museveni, for the 2021 general elections, even the youngest and strongest opposition party, the National Unity Platform (NUP), has seen some of its members associating with the Muhoozi movement.
Presently, it is the upheaval within the once-dominant FDC that has captured the nation's attention. Both the Leader of the Opposition, Mathias Mpuuga, and political pundit Gerald Walulya concur that opposition is not merely defined by political parties and their leaders.
"Opposition is the people, so even though a few defect, opposition-minded people will align with new opposition forces." Stated Mathias Mpuuga.
"All political parties are currently struggling, and although it may confuse the masses, people will ultimately decide who they rally against in elections." Added Gerald Walulya.
In 2016, President Museveni proclaimed that by 2026, there would be no opposition in Uganda. With the current disarray within the opposition ranks, his prophecy seems to be taking shape.
However, Nabwiso, a political observer, asserted that the ruling NRM deliberately undermines the opposition, masking it as a demonstration of democracy.
"The NRM is intentionally crushing the opposition, offering the illusion of democracy," Nabwiso commented.
Walulya remarked, "The NRM's dream is partially successful as it disorganizes the opposition, but when Museveni made that statement, he did not anticipate the emergence of NUP."
Mpuuga countered, "Museveni can buy off everyone, but at the grassroots level, the opposition still stands."
As 2026 draws closer, experts warn that the opposition has once again embarked on a precarious path.
Rather than reorganizing, uniting, and strategizing, they face numerous challenges and maneuvering difficulties.
Nabwiso pondered, "I wonder if they can unite and form a coalition similar to the one in Kenya with Raila."
Mpuuga reassured, "This is merely a wave; it will subside, and the opposition will regroup."
However, concerns persist regarding the ease with which the once-mighty opposition is swayed, co-opted, or enticed by Museveni's tactics, leaving uncertainty about who may be the next target.
Walulya cautioned, "The trend will continue, and more parties should be warned, as NUP might be next."
Mpuuga acknowledged NUP's strength as a young party but highlighted the need for the party to build robust structures to overcome its own challenges.
As the opposition navigates these turbulent times, it remains to be seen whether they can weather the storm, unite, and present a formidable force against the ruling NRM in future elections. The trajectory of Uganda's political landscape hinges on their ability to learn from past experiences, strategize effectively, and maintain their commitment to the ideals of a strong opposition.