“Some are born great, some achieve greatness, and others have greatness thrust upon them,” William Shakespeare wrote in Twelfth Night.
One could be forgiven for thinking Shakespeare was referring to Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba, the CDF, who is also the outgoing president Museveni’s son.
Why?
Except to a few day-dreamers, most realistic Ugandans, including yours sincerely, now believe it is only a matter of time before greatness is thrust upon Gen Muhoozi.
I will revert to this shortly.
Meanwhile, this piece is inspired by a recent Nile Post report, “Uganda Displays Military Might as Museveni Swears in for Seventh Term” (May 12, 2026).
I also drew from my experience during the fifteen years I spent negotiating the UN Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) of 1972.
The Treaty prohibits all other countries from developing nuclear weapons except the five permanent (P5) members of the UN Security Council – Britain, China, France, Russia and the US.
But despite, if not because of, the discriminatory nature of the Treaty, five other countries have developed nuclear weapons “illegally” – Israel, India, Iran, Pakistan and North Korea.
They do not want to find themselves in Japan’s position in June 1945, when it was forced to surrender after the US nuclear attacks which devastated Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Today, any nuclear-armed country attacking another is guaranteed a retaliation in kind, leading to Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD).
At the same time, nuclear-armed countries are also investing heavily in cyber, drone and artificial intelligence weapons technologies.
Unlike nuclear weapons, also known as weapons of mass destruction (WMD), which would destroy anything within a radius of 10–20 miles, cyber and cruise missiles are more selective and precise in offensive and defensive capabilities.
This leads us directly to President Muhoozi and Ex-President Museveni’s obsolete weapons. Is he aware that the “military might” that propelled his father to power and has kept him there for forty years is now obsolete in this dangerous 21st century?
Crucially, is he prepared and willing to defend Uganda, soon to be awash with oil, also known as a “resource curse,” which has invariably brought foreign military intervention along with unspeakable misery to oil-rich countries such as Iraq, Libya, Venezuela and now Iran?
Yet, according to the Nile Post report referred to earlier, Uganda’s current military might includes the following World War II-era weapons:
“Russian-made Sukhoi Su-30MK2, MiG-21 and MiG-23 fighter jets, Mi-17, Mi-24 and Mi-28 attack and utility helicopters... Mamba/Nyoka and Hizir armoured personnel carriers, T-55 and T-90 armoured vehicles, BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launchers, 105mm and 122mm field artillery guns.”
These might persuade some daredevil opposition supporters to stay home instead of joining street demonstrations.
Sadly, they have not deterred the ADF, who have been terrorising western Uganda for over two decades.
They are even less likely to defend Uganda against oil hunters who have passed through Iraq, Libya, Venezuela and Iran.
To their credit, Iranians have so far survived the ongoing US attack only because they foresaw the game-changing weapons of the 21st century and invested time and money in developing smarter weapons technologies.
As a consequence, Donald Trump, who had confidently told us he would bomb Iran back to the Stone Age in three weeks, has only recently declared the war over after twelve weeks.
But, contrary to his earlier military objective, he is leaving Iran’s political and military structures essentially as intact as they were before the attack.
President Muhoozi should recognise that without the UN that used to regulate behaviour between states, large and small, US President Trump has introduced the law of the jungle: might is right. This determines whether an oil-rich country lives in peace or faces regime change.
In summation, President Muhoozi is facing a stark choice: replace Ex-President Museveni’s obsolete weapons with smarter ones fit for the 21st century to survive like Iran, or wait for Uganda to become another Iraq, Libya or Venezuela.
Oil is not only wealth, but also a proven curse.
I rest my case. Please exercise your right to reply.