The political landscape in Mbarara City South is heating up as the 2026 elections approach. Following a violent 2021 election, marred by the arrests of bloggers, irregularities, and unmet promises, analysts are predicting significant changes in leadership.
Residents have largely remained silent, waiting for the right moment to voice their concerns, but political analysts anticipate major surprises. Bright Muhumuza, a political analyst and former contender, noted,
“The division is bracing for a shift in leadership, with voters growing tired of broken promises.” This sentiment is echoed by many locals, who feel let down by unfulfilled commitments from their leaders.
One of the key issues fueling voter dissatisfaction is the failure of incumbent Mwine Mpaka Rwamirama to deliver on his campaign promises. In 2021, Mpaka secured 15,770 votes against Emmy Mbareebakyi’s 11,269, largely on a platform of infrastructure development, pledging to improve roads, bridges, and provide electricity.
However, the Katete Bridge, a crucial link between Mbarara and Isingiro, remains in disrepair. “The bridge serves as a lifeline for businesses in the area, but it’s been left unattended,” said lawyer and political analyst Muhangunzi Honorato.
The bridge’s deterioration has caused a sharp decline in trade, particularly affecting Katete, the most populous area of Mbarara City. This neglect has led to frustration among local business owners who feel abandoned by the current administration.
In addition to crumbling infrastructure, high taxes have become another point of contention for local businesses, adding to the growing disillusionment with the current leadership, as underscored by Muhangunzi.
“The incumbent promised progress, but what we see is the opposite—businesses are collapsing under the weight of high taxes and poor infrastructure,” Muhangunzi added.
These failures have opened the door for opposition figures like Bright Muhumuza and Emmy Mbareebakyi, both of whom are already showing interest in the 2026 race.
Muhumuza, reflecting on his 2021 campaign, remarked, “Despite laying out a clear vision for the city’s transformation, voters were more interested in money, soap, vodka, and salt.” He believes that financial handouts have overshadowed substantive policies in Mbarara’s political landscape.
The influence of money in local politics has only deepened. According to analysts, candidates must now spend billions of shillings to secure a seat in Parliament.
Muhumuza lamented this trend, stating, “To win in Mbarara City South, you need billions, where is the integrity in that?” This dynamic has eroded the value of manifestos, with many voters casting their ballots based on material goods rather than policies.
As Crescent Tumwesigye, a resident of Kakoba, put it, “We’re tired of false promises. Those in power don’t care about the concerns of ordinary people.” With rising frustrations and new candidates likely to enter the race, the 2026 elections are shaping up to be a contentious battle for Mbarara City South.