To understand what’s happening now, we must first go back to where it all started—the resurgence of the M23 rebel group and their shocking takeover of Goma
In November 2012, the March 23 Movement, commonly known as M23, stormed and captured Goma, the capital of North Kivu province in eastern DRC.
This group, primarily composed of Congolese Tutsis, had a history of conflict with the Congolese government, accusing it of failing to uphold a 2009 peace agreement that was meant to integrate them into the national army.
Their offensive in November 2012 was swift and decisive. Congolese forces (FARDC) abandoned their positions, and the United Nations peacekeeping force, MONUSCO, largely stood by, bound by strict rules of engagement that prevented them from intervening directly.
With Goma under M23’s control, the rebels demanded negotiations with Kinshasa, seeking political reforms and security guarantees for their community. The international community responded with diplomatic pressure and after 11 days of occupation, M23 withdrew from Goma in early December.
However, this was just the beginning. One year later, in 2013, M23 was defeated by a newly formed UN-backed force, the Force Intervention Brigade (FIB), comprising South African, Tanzanian, and Malawian troops. The group was pushed into Rwanda and Uganda, where its fighters either went into hiding or were allegedly integrated into security forces in those countries.
Fast forward to 2025, In late January 2025, the March 23 Movement (M23), a rebel group primarily composed of ethnic Tutsis, launched a significant offensive in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), culminating in the capture of Goma, the capital of North Kivu province.
The assault began on January 23, with M23 seizing the strategic town of Sake, effectively cutting off Goma's main supply route. By January 25, M23 forces had entered Goma, and within days, they claimed control over most of the city, including the international airport.
The offensive led to intense urban combat, resulting in significant casualties among civilians and military personnel. Hospitals in Goma were overwhelmed, and there were widespread reports of looting and humanitarian crises. The United Nations and various international actors expressed deep concern over the situation, urging immediate cessation of hostilities and respect for human rights.
The DRC government accused Rwanda of providing direct support to M23, including troops and heavy weaponry, allegations that Rwanda has consistently denied. In response to the offensive, DRC President Félix Tshisekedi called for a massive military mobilization to counter the rebels' advance and reclaim lost territories.
The fall of Goma to M23 in 2025 marks a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict in eastern DRC, reminiscent of similar events in 2012. The situation remains fluid, with regional and international stakeholders closely monitoring developments and advocating for peaceful resolutions to the crisis.
But just as the M23 takeover of Goma made headlines, so did another surprising development—the surrender and deportation of over 280 Romanian mercenaries.
In a bizarre turn of events, the world learned that over 280 mercenaries, mostly Romanian nationals, had been fighting alongside the Congolese army (FARDC) against M23.
When M23 launched its recent offensive and took over Goma, these foreign fighters surrendered to the rebels. They were disarmed and paraded at the DR Congo-Rwanda border.
After this public humiliation, the mercenaries were escorted into Rwanda, where the Rwandan Defense Forces (RDF) processed and deported them. The significance of this event cannot be overstated, it raises urgent questions about the extent of foreign military involvement in the DRC conflict.
But as this was unfolding, diplomatic tensions were flaring between Rwanda and South Africa, reaching a point where war is no longer being ruled out.
A diplomatic standoff between Rwanda and South Africa is now center stage, fueled by disagreements over the conflict in the DRC.
Rwanda has long been accused of backing M23 while South Africa is part of a regional military coalition sent to fight the rebels. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) deployed forces to eastern DRC including South African troops.
However, this deployment has led to deadly clashes. South African soldiers have reportedly been killed in action, but the cause of their deaths is now a major controversy.
According to South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, his country’s forces were targeted by M23 rebels. However, Rwandan President Paul Kagame claims that Ramaphosa admitted in private that Congolese troops—not M23—were responsible for the deaths of South African soldiers.
Kagame went even further, calling Ramaphosa “dishonest”and saying that South Africa’s involvement is nothing more than an act of aggression disguised as peacekeeping. His most chilling statement?
“If South Africa prefers confrontation, Rwanda will deal with the matter in that context any day.” Kagame said
This is a direct challenge to South Africa, marking one of the most dangerous escalations in the region’s history.
But as these diplomatic tensions escalate, there are renewed efforts—this time from the East African Community (EAC)—to restore peace through a ceasefire
On January 29, 2025, East African Community (EAC) leaders held a virtual emergency meeting calling for an immediate ceasefire in eastern DRC
However, one major player was missing from this discussion—DRC President Felix Tshisekedi. Instead of attending the summit, he was in Angola - a country that has been attempting to mediate peace between DRC, Rwanda, and M23.
Despite the EAC’s efforts, tensions between Rwanda and South Africa continue to boil over
South Africa sees Rwanda’s support for M23 a s a direct threat to regional stability while Rwanda views South Africa’s military deployment as an act of aggression
With Kagame openly challenging South Africa to a military confrontation the risk of direct conflict between two of Africa’s most powerful armies is dangerously high.
The future of eastern DRC and the stability of Africa’s Great Lakes region may depend on the answers to these questions.