"They can't dare!" were the three words Brigadier-General Felix Kulayigye, the defence and military spokesperson, had to say when asked if the M23 rebels are capable of completing a clean sweep of Eastern DR Congo.
Gen Kulayigye was alluding to the UPDF's presence in Ituri, where the Ugandan military is in a cooperation agreement with FARDC to eliminate the pockets of ADF rebels.
Ituri makes up one-third of the provinces of Eastern DR Congo, alongside North Kivu and South Kivu.
The March 23rd Movement, or M23 rebels, overran North Kivu and laid claim to its capital, Goma, overnight on Monday—an incursion that unfolded like a stroll in the park.
Every threat the rebels made, they lived up to. The sight of the Congolese national army (FARDC) surrendering their weapons to UN peacekeepers (Monusco) to meet a 3 a.m. deadline given by the advancing rebels must have left President Felix Tshisekedi embarrassed.
But worse was to come—those who could not surrender to Monusco as directed by the rebels crossed the border into Rwanda and surrendered to the very country Tshisekedi blames for the M23 insurgence.
Meanwhile, the streets of Goma, with calm restored after the rebels called it, were lined with locals who came out to greet the marching rebels and thank them for the "liberation."
Eleven years ago this month, the M23 could have faced Colonel Mamadou Ndala, whose command of the FARDC in North Kivu earned him a cult following among locals who would line up to sing his name.
But Col Ndala was killed in an ambush planned and paid for by his own FARDC leaders, who were envious of the fame he had earned with his blood among the people.
With Col Ndala gone and Tshisekedi having removed the wall provided by regional forces against the M23 in favor of alliances with his southern buddies and some UN groups, the rebels easily marched into Goma.
With the swift incursion and capture of the key North Kivu city accomplished, what’s next for the M23? Will they push forward into South Kivu and capture Bukavu before heading for Ituri to take complete control of the entire swath of Eastern DR Congo?
It sounds too real to be true. But even the idea that they could overrun Goma sounded just as unlikely two weeks ago. Analysts point to Rwanda's "visible" hand in the incursion, arguing that while the boots might belong to the M23, everything else bears Kigali's fingerprints.
If Rwanda is behind the M23 and they got this far, could they spread their influence over all of Eastern DR Congo?
The challenge with the vast Central African nation is that the M23 is just one of more than 100 militant groups operating in its jungles. It is rare to find two groups that formally embed and agree to operate as a unit.
This is largely because most militants exist for different reasons. For some, it is about their tribe—they take up arms to protect their people against real or perceived threats.
For others, it is about mineral resources. They either protect these from exploitation or serve as the armed enforcers of sponsors benefiting from the resources.
The M23 was formed as an offshoot of another rebel group in 2012, ostensibly to protect the Tutsi population in Eastern DR Congo, which had long complained of persecution and discrimination.
Rwanda has repeatedly accused Congolese authorities of working with individuals responsible for the 1994 Rwandan genocide against ethnic Tutsi and moderate Hutu.
Kinshasa, in turn, blames Rwanda and its leader, Paul Kagame, for backing the M23. This view is supported by various UN groups.
In Bukavu, the capital of South Kivu, Governor Jean Jacques Purusi has rallied thousands of citizens in a peaceful march against the M23 occupation of Goma.
Before Purusi, Maj. Gen. Peter Cirimwami in North Kivu had flamboyantly denounced the M23 advance, daring them to make their move. It was during a photo op on the frontline that he was killed by a bullet.
Purusi will likely be more cautious, but he knows that if anyone can stop the M23 now—besides Kagame and Ugandan President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni—it is the citizens themselves.
Bukavu is six hours from Goma, meaning it would take less than a week for the M23 to advance into the South Kivu capital, even with other militias in their way.
The only challenge is that while the M23 easily secured cooperation or dominance over North Kivu militants, advancing beyond Goma is a different game.
If they are to harbour dreams of complete control over Eastern DR Congo, they would first need the UPDF to abandon its current Operation Shuja in Ituri, the third province making up the eastern bloc.
"They have already achieved their aim," said a Rwandan security officer on condition of anonymity. "They have no reason to advance any further than Goma."
The capture of Goma has sent a strong message throughout DR Congo. For President Tshisekedi, it signals that he cannot rely on Burundi, UN or SADC forces anymore. He needs regional forces to maintain a wall between him and the M23.
The M23 would be cautious about clashing with regional forces, as this could trigger a declaration of war involving Kigali, given the perception of Rwandan sponsorship.
The capture also teaches Tshisekedi a major lesson: the rebels are no pushovers, and he cannot continue sounding war drums against Rwanda. With the rebels in Goma, FARDC risks fatal losses should they initiate conflict with Rwanda.
Meanwhile, Kinshasa might attempt a gunboat diplomacy strategy to salvage the situation, with hopes of negotiating a cessation of hostilities.
The M23's current position, however, remains uncertain. In December 2022, the group agreed to a cessation of hostilities and pulled back after making a push toward Goma. At the time, they said they were giving regional peacekeeping efforts a chance, which led to the deployment of regional forces in DR Congo. Tshisekedi has since expelled them.
Will the M23 retreat from their newly captured territory this time?