OPINION: Putin and Russia are finished. Uganda must strategise to survive in a new world order
It was two own own-goals for Uganda to abstain, twice, in two UN votes on Russia (Uganda again abstains as UN countries vote to suspend Russia over Ukraine invasion’ Nile Post, 8th April 2022).
Why?
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Invading another country has historically had unpleasant consequences for the invader, especially where the victim has powerful friends.
Consider Hitler’s attack on Poland in 1939, Saddam Hussein’s attack on Kuwait in 1990 and Idi Amin’s attack on Tanzania in 1977.
The outcome of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine won’t be different, presenting us, Ugandans, with a simple choice:
To continue agonising over former Speaker Oulanyah’s death, the colossal amount of money spent both on his burial and looking after his interests, and the tribal sentiments all these have aroused.
Or, to wake and start preparing to survive in the aftermath of the Tsunami, now building up and gaining momentum in Ukraine.
This Tsunami will sweep away the old order along with Russia, which has been a major player as one of the five nuclear-armed permanent members of the UN Security Council.
Where is the evidence?
In her press statement soon after the first UN General Assembly’s resolution deploring Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Black US Ambassador to the UN Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield said of African countries:
“I think many of them (including Uganda) saw an abstention as being neutral. And there is no neutral ground here. There is no question”.
Yet, our presumptive future president, Lt. Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, has made Uganda’s position even clearer than the diplomatically vague abstention votes at the UN.
In his 28th February 2022 tweet, which is being widely quoted in the international press, Gen. M Kainerugaba wrote, bluntly:
“The majority of mankind (that are non-white) support Russia's stand in Ukraine. Putin is absolutely right!”
But the writing is on the wall - Putin and Russia will not survive for much longer, considering the increasing assaults on multiple fronts where every conceivable weapon is in used.
In the field, Ukraine has become a massive graveyard for smouldering Russian military equipment and dead soldiers; thanks to drones and other lethal weapons supplied by NATO countries.
In the diplomatic corridors, anti-Putin rhetoric palpable, the dominant subject being how to fracture Russia so comprehensively it will never invade any European country again. There is little interest in accelerating Russia EU membership.
In the financial world, everyone is calling for even more crippling sanctions on Russia, regardless of the cost to their domestic consumers.
In the airwaves, all western media houses are competing to outdo each other in demonising Putin and calling for an international arrest warrant to take him to The Hague.
In the cyber space, a group calling itself “Anonymous” is hacking into and taking over Russian TV stations, interrupting scheduled programmes and broadcasting anti-Putin slogans instead.
The cumulative effect of all these are unmistakable.
The Russian national economy will collapse, leading to violent riots in the streets, mutiny in the army, and the break-up of the country into its 34 constituent regions.
Consequently, Russia will lose its permanent seat at the UN Security Council. As a dress rehearsal, last week, Russia was suspended from the UN Human Rights Council.
War and international politics are zero-sum games. Therefore, Uganda and Africa should take advantage of Russia’s looming demise to claim the vacant seat at the UN Security Council.
Inevitably, that means dropping support for Russia and forging friendship with the winners.
Does anyone need us to name the winner in Russia-Ukraine war will be?
Sam Akaki
Apac sub-county, Maruzi county.
