Bobi Wine Vs Kibalama: What are the likely scenarios of todays’ ruling?

Justice Musa Sekana will today at midday deliver a ruling in which National Unity Platform (NUP) founder Moses Nkonge Kibalama claims the transfer of the party to the leadership of Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu alias Bobi Wine was done illegally.

The court was also asked to adjudicate on the matter in which the party’s co-founders led by Difas Basile and Twaha Mukibi also argued that specific internal procedures were not followed in handing the party leadership to Bobi Wine.

What Judiciary says

According to Judiciary spokesperson Solomon Muyita, the judgment will be delivered at midday and all parties involved will receive it through their respective emails.

“About midday, the decision should be out and will be sent to email addresses and their counsel and will share with the public through media.”

Muyita affirms that this is not the first time a ruling is being made through digital means, but points to the nature of the case at hand and says it was in the best interests to avoid gathering parties at court.

“This is not the first time we are issuing ruling through online means, cases like this one draw public interest, we don’t want many people to flood the courtrooms, they are small enough,” he said.

“We can not let in more than 10 people, and in such cases, our security has been challenged, so we have tried to limit people’s presence,” he added.

On why the initial hearing of the case was conducted physically and not through digital means, Muyita said it was important to the judge to interact with the parties on the case.

“We maintain the hearing in open courts because the interaction is important, like the demeanor of the witness, the cross-examination, etc. But the judgment is clear, you do not need to be there to look at the officer reading from the first page to the last page,” he said.

He said the adjournment of the ruling was due to the fact that both parties submitted late.

“The parties gave their submissions late, so the judge had to postpone the ruling to a week to allow him to evaluate evidence, read submissions, and deliver a ruling.”

With just a few minutes to the ruling? What could b the likely scenarios?

The NUP team led by Bobi Wine is currently holed up at their headquarters in Kamwokya where they are waiting for the judgment.

Daniel Ruhweza, a Makerere University Law don says this being an election season, there is tension since it is possible that the case goes either way.

“This has an effect, for instance, should the case go against NUP, they will have to go back, reorganize themselves. They will be asking for consequential orders for instance for those who registered under NUP,” Ruhweza said.

He however said this should not cause us sleepless nights because it is just a party seeking adjudication and will not necessarily knock them out of election participation.

“Whatever result, it will help them innovate. If there is a need to make changes they will need to make them. If the court maintains the status quo they will have to keep it up. If the court recommends otherwise, then they will have to change, but it will not affect their rights to participate in the election,” he said.

What NUP says

According to NUP spokesperson Joel Ssenyonyi said they are eagerly waiting for the ruling and that it will be in their favor.

“We did everything within the law, the same matter was brought before this same judge and he threw the case out. As far as the law is concerned, we ticked every box. We are hopeful the judgment will be in our favor,” he said.

Ssenyonyi said that the case has not concerned them at all.

“This case has not been of any worry for us, we have been more concerned with far important issues like getting our candidates nominated, etc. On the other hand, it has exposed the regime. We are alright on our side.”

Ssenyonyi said they will communicate to the media regardless of the result of the ruling.

“We are still on the agenda of bringing change no matter the result of the ruling. Our ultimate goal is to change the leadership of this country,” he said.

He said the case is more about jostling them rather than looking at the legal irregularities as far as the transfer of the party is concerned.

Best case scenario

According to Ruhweza, the best-case scenario will be to dismiss the application and the status quo remains for the party to continue engaging.

“Listening to the NUP spokesperson, they say this is not giving them sleepless nights but the best-case scenario would be that the case is dismissed. It would be good to get the reassurance,” Ruhweza said.

“I personally think the NUP members are anxious. I personally did not see that the legal issues were of such a fundamental weight that they would affect their duties to participate from elections,” he added.

Regarding the admission of forgery by Moses Kibalama, Ruhweza says that the court will most likely pronounce itself boldly on that matter.

“Court is not blind to that and will make a specific finding on the forgery and its effect.”

Worst case scenario?

Ruhweza said that the worst-case scenario would be that the case goes against NUP, and the judge asking the party to start the process afresh.

“It would ordinarily affect NUP operations, the decision would mean NUP does not exist and the persons nominated would be affected too.”